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Decision Making Under Uncertainty, with a Special Emphasis on Geosciences and Education

Part of the Studies in Systems, Decision and Control Book Series (volume 218)

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-26086-5

ISBN: 978-3-031-26085-8

Publisher: Springer International Publishing - Springer Journals

Mar 22, 2023

1 - 10 of 26 Chapters

LitStream

General Introduction

Bokati, Laxman; Kreinovich, Vladik

Pages: 3 –6

[One of the main objectives of science is to help people make good decisions. Because of the ubiquity and importance of decision making, it has been the subject of intensive research.]
LitStream

(Rational) Individual Decision Making: Main Ideas

Bokati, Laxman; Kreinovich, Vladik

Pages: 7 –11

[Traditional decision theory (see, e.g., [1–5]) describes preferences of rational agents.]
LitStream

(Rational) Group Decision Making: General Formulas and a New Simplified Derivation of These Formulas

Bokati, Laxman; Kreinovich, Vladik

Pages: 13 –18

[According to decision theory, if a group of people wants to select one of the alternatives in which all of them get a better deal than in a status quo situation, then they should select the alternative that maximizes the product of their utilities. This recommendation was derived by Nobelist...
LitStream

How We Can Control Group Decision Making by Modifying the Proposed Options

Bokati, Laxman; Kreinovich, Vladik

Pages: 19 –25

[In summary, this chapter explains how we can control group decision making by modifying the proposed options. This chapter contains both an empirical dependence—and our explanation of this dependence. This is the first chapter that contains completely new results.]
LitStream

The Fact That We Can Only Have Approximate Estimates Explains Why Buying and Selling Prices are Different

Bokati, Laxman; Kreinovich, Vladik

Pages: 29 –32

[In this and following chapters, we describe these deviations, and we explain why people’s actual decisions differ from the recommendations of decision theory. Let us start with the first stage of decision making. In this stage, we have to base our decisions on incomplete.]
LitStream

The “No Trade Theorem” Paradox

Bokati, Laxman; Kreinovich, Vladik

Pages: 33 –37

[Another consequence of the fact that people have only approximate estimates of economics-related quantities is that different people come up with different prices for the same item.]
LitStream

People Make Decisions Based on Clusters Containing Actual Values

Bokati, Laxman; Kreinovich, Vladik

Pages: 39 –42

[Instead of eliciting the accurate values, people make decisions based on clusters containing the actual values. It is known that, in general, people classify objects into 5 to 9 clusters—this is known as the \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym}...
LitStream

When Revolutions Succeed

Bokati, Laxman; Kreinovich, Vladik

Pages: 43 –45

[A statistical analysis of hundreds of successful and unsuccessful revolutionRevolution attempts led historians to a very unexpected conclusion: that most attempts involving at least 3.5% of the population succeeded, while most attempts that involved a smaller portion of the population failed.]
LitStream

How People Combine Utility Values

Bokati, Laxman; Kreinovich, Vladik

Pages: 47 –51

[To make a decision, people need to estimate the value (utility) of each alternative. In real life, alternatives are complex, they include several different items. So, to estimate the value of an alternative, we need to estimate the value of each item, and then combine these estimates into a...
LitStream

Biased Perception of Time

Bokati, Laxman; Kreinovich, Vladik

Pages: 53 –55

[To make a proper decision, people need to also take into account future consequences of different alternatives. It turns out that they usually underestimate time passed since distant events, and overestimate time passed since recent events. There are several explanations for this “telescoping...

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