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China's Macroeconomic Outlook

Part of the Current Chinese Economic Report Series Book Series

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-36923-0

ISBN: 978-3-642-36922-3

Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg - Springer Journals

Mar 27, 2013

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Chapter 1Review of Macroeconomic Performance in the First Half of 2012

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Pages: 1 –8

[In the first half of 2012, the quarterly growth rate of China’s GDP continued to decline compared to the same period of last year. The cumulative growth rate of GDP for the first half was 7.8 %, which is the lowest level since the first quarter of 2010. From the long term perspective, the...
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Chapter 2Forecast for 2012–2013

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Pages: 9 –19

[Uncertainties in external markets are still major sources of economic fluctuation in China for 2012–2013. In the first half of 2012, the euro area has involved into severe economic turmoil, ending up with a growth rate of −0.8 % in the second quarter, after an optimistic growth rate of 0.06 % in...
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Chapter 3Policy Simulation

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Pages: 21 –28

[Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese government has taken powerful anti-crisis measures. A “4 trillion Yuan stimulus package” was one of measures used to avoid the China’s economy from plunging. After the China’s economy picked up in the first quarter of 2010, the quarterly...
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Chapter 4Policy Implication and Recommendations

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Pages: 29 –33

[How to carry out macroeconomic policies in the next 2 years has attracted a lot of attention because the uncertain external economic outlook: to maintain a high growth rate, by continuing the traditional development pattern and go all out or to achieving steady growth by implementing a mild...
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Chapter 5Comments and Discussions

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Pages: 35 –40

[It is an outstanding report on macroeconomic forecasting and analysis that has been done very meticulously and seriously, and its policy suggestion is also feasible. I basically agree with the basic conclusions of the report and analysis.]

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