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China’s Macroeconomic Outlook

Part of the Current Chinese Economic Report Series Book Series

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-40044-5

Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg - Springer Journals

Aug 5, 2013

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Chapter 1A Review of China’s Economy in 2012

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Pages: 1 –8

[In 2012, China’s GDP grew by 7.8 %, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points over the previous year. The worsening sovereign debt crisis in Europe and sluggish recovery in the U.S. economy had directly depressed external market demand for China. On the other hand, domestic excess production capacity...
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Chapter 2Forecast of China’s Macroeconomic Outlook for 2013–2014

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Pages: 9 –18

[One improvement is to add the imports and exports module (block of equations) into CQMM. In 2012, China’s exports increased by 7.9 %. Among them, exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) increased rapidly by 20.1 %. Meanwhile, the trade value between China and ASEAN reached...
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Chapter 3Policy Simulation

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Pages: 19 –27

[The final consumption, especially the share of resident consumption in GDP, has kept declining in China, which has been the most significant feature of the structural imbalance of national economy over the past decade. Although series tax cuts and other policies which aimed at stimulating...
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Chapter 4Policy Implications and Suggestions

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Pages: 29 –34

[Based on the results from policy simulations, this report makes two policy suggestions as follows:]
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Chapter 5Comments and Discussions

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Pages: 35 –41

[This report is an earnest work, and the simulation focused on fiscal policy and people’s wellbeing, which is a good choice. I think that the conclusions made by the research team with Xiamen University are clear and fresh. More importantly, their work is also a brave attempt. I’d like to talk...

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