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Paradoxes in Probability Theory

Part of the SpringerBriefs in Philosophy Book Series

DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-5140-8

ISBN: 978-94-007-5139-2

Publisher: Springer Netherlands - Springer Journals

Sep 27, 2012

1 - 9 of 9 Chapters

LitStream

Chapter 1Seven Paradoxes

Eckhardt, William

Pages: 1 –4

[How long will the human race survive? The Doomsday argument has been proposed not as paradox, but as a serious proposal about the prospects of human survival. It is paradoxical because elementary probability reasoning is used to go from a mundane fact to a truly extraordinary conclusion. As with...
LitStream

DOOMSDAY!

Eckhardt, William

Pages: 7 –10

[The Doomsday argument concerns a question sure to arouse interest—the survival of the human race. It is rivaled only by the Simulation argument in attempting to address profound questions of human nature and destiny through elementary probability calculations. Proponents of the argument maintain...
LitStream

The Betting Crowd

Eckhardt, William

Pages: 11 –13

[Of the seven paradoxes the Betting Crowd is the easiest to penetrate. Therein lies its value; analysis of the fallacious aspects of the Betting Crowd can greatly help in negotiating the more treacherous terrain of the Doomsday and Simulation arguments. The non-murderous version we examine...
LitStream

The Simulation Argument

Eckhardt, William

Pages: 15 –17

[A sim is a conscious simulation that does not know it is a simulation. Current enthusiasm notwithstanding, it is a distinct possibility that creating this good a sim is either unfeasible or impossible in which case the Simulation argument does not get started.]
LitStream

Newcomb’s Problem

Eckhardt, William

Pages: 21 –34

[The first three paradoxes revolved around questions of what would be factually true, given certain assumptions. The rest concern questions of what someone called the playershould do given certain situations, thereby entering the realm of decision theory. To guard the claim that these paradoxes...
LitStream

The Open Box Game

Eckhardt, William

Pages: 35 –38

[The OpenBoxgame (OB) is a standard Newcomb problem except that the 1st box is open; the player can see whether the 1st box is full or empty before making a boxing decision. There are four possible strategies in the Open Box game:]
LitStream

The Hadron Collider Card Experiment

Eckhardt, William

Pages: 39 –44

[In a series of papers (Nielsen et al. 1996; Nielsen 1989) Holger B. Nielson and Masao Ninomiya present a reformulation of physical theory which if correct would have paradoxical consequences for the long awaited production of a Higgs boson. According to this theory any attempt to produce a Higgs...
LitStream

The Two-Envelopes Problem

Eckhardt, William

Pages: 47 –58

[The Two-Envelopes problem involves no questions of human nature or survival, nor any dubious assumptions such as human randomness. There are no issues of cooperation or defection, no dominance principles at stake.]
LitStream

Odds and Ends

Eckhardt, William

Pages: 59 –73

[Let A0, A1, A2,… be a set of alternatives that are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.]

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