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An Essay on the Principle of Sustainable Population

Part of the SpringerBriefs in Population Studies Book Series

DOI: 10.1007/978-981-13-3654-6

ISBN: 978-981-13-3653-9

Publisher: Springer Singapore - Springer Journals

May 23, 2020

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Chapter 1Introduction: The Sustainability of the World Population

Hara, Toshihiko

Pages: 1 –10

[According to the UN projection 2017, the world’s population will increase by more than four billion in the next 85 years and will reach 11 billion by 2100. Quoting from Prof. Lam’s N-IUSSP essay, “The world’s next 4 billion” (Lam 2017), there is a debate on the future of humankind on the...
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Chapter 2The Principle of Sustainable Population

Hara, Toshihiko

Pages: 11 –30

[In the past 10,000 years of human history, the exponential rise of world population takes place only since the end of the seventeenth century. Joel E. Cohen drew a graph to show the historical change of human population from One Million B.C. up to the present. It looks like a reverse L-shaped...
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Chapter 3Japan’s Demographic Transition (JDT)

Hara, Toshihiko

Pages: 31 –46

[The Demographic Transition (DT) is known as the historical process from high fertility and mortality in preindustrial society to low fertility and mortality in postindustrial society. At first, it is being observed in Western countries but shortly after World War II, Japan is the first country...
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Chapter 4System Dynamics Model of Demographic Transition

Hara, Toshihiko

Pages: 47 –65

[Based on the historical analysis of Japan’s Demographic Transition (JDT) and using a System Dynamics (SD), approach referencing the World3 (Meadows et al. 1972), I have constructed the Demographic Transition Model of Japan (DTMJ). This model aims to explicate the Demographic Transition (DT) of...
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Chapter 5Simulation Run for the Demographic Transition in Japan

Hara, Toshihiko

Pages: 67 –84

[The Demographic Transition Model of Japan (DTMJ) is designed as a logico-mathematical model, which requires only a few historical data for initial settings to reproduce the demographic transition of Japan. It includes six major factors: population-age structure, fertility, reproduction timing,...
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Chapter 6Conclusion: Demographic Future of Human Society

Hara, Toshihiko

Pages: 85 –103

[According to the UN Prospects 2019, the world population will grow from 7.7 billion to 10.9 billion, the growth rate is decreasing and nearly to 0 at around the end of this century for the latest. When observing the world population by decomposing it into 6 regions, it shows that the wave of the...
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Chapter 7Epilogue: Toward a Sustainable Society

Hara, Toshihiko

Pages: 105 –112

[While the principle of a sustainable population is unchangeable and independent, in real population history, the background determinants play a decisive role to set the direction, timing, and speed of population development. Therefore, the challenges to transform a shrinking society into a...

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