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Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence†

Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence† AbstractThis study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-difference, instrumental variable, and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women of fertile age by 8 percent in the short run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the pay-as-you-go long run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women, and among mothers with sons. (JEL H55, I38, J13, J16, O15) http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Economic Journal Economic Policy American Economic Association

Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence†

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Publisher
American Economic Association
Copyright
Copyright © 2023 © American Economic Association
ISSN
1945-7731
DOI
10.1257/pol.20200440
Publisher site
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Abstract

AbstractThis study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-difference, instrumental variable, and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women of fertile age by 8 percent in the short run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the pay-as-you-go long run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women, and among mothers with sons. (JEL H55, I38, J13, J16, O15)

Journal

American Economic Journal Economic Policy – American Economic Association

Published: May 1, 2023

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