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Effect of Monetary Policy on Government Spending Multiplier

Effect of Monetary Policy on Government Spending Multiplier AbstractThis paper empirically examines the effect of monetary policy on the government spending multiplier when the nominal interest rate is not bound to zero. We estimate a time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive (TVC-VAR) model using 2000:Q1 to 2019:Q3 quarterly data of Korea, whose policy rate is distant from zero. We find a substantial degree of time variation in the medium-run government spending multipliers, which increase over time and become statistically different from zero throughout the 2010s. Yet the reverse pattern is observed in the policy rate responses to government spending shocks, decreasing gradually until 2008–09 and then stagnating for the subsequent period. Decompositions of the policy rate responses reveal that inflation is an important ingredient in determining the responses of the nominal interest rate to government spending shocks, and thus has a critical impact on the size of government spending multipliers. In particular, our finding underscores a substantial role of the monetary policy stance against inflation in shaping government spending multipliers. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The B E Journal of Macroeconomics de Gruyter

Effect of Monetary Policy on Government Spending Multiplier

The B E Journal of Macroeconomics , Volume 23 (1): 37 – Jan 1, 2023

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References (17)

Publisher
de Gruyter
Copyright
© 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
ISSN
1935-1690
eISSN
1935-1690
DOI
10.1515/bejm-2020-0229
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractThis paper empirically examines the effect of monetary policy on the government spending multiplier when the nominal interest rate is not bound to zero. We estimate a time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive (TVC-VAR) model using 2000:Q1 to 2019:Q3 quarterly data of Korea, whose policy rate is distant from zero. We find a substantial degree of time variation in the medium-run government spending multipliers, which increase over time and become statistically different from zero throughout the 2010s. Yet the reverse pattern is observed in the policy rate responses to government spending shocks, decreasing gradually until 2008–09 and then stagnating for the subsequent period. Decompositions of the policy rate responses reveal that inflation is an important ingredient in determining the responses of the nominal interest rate to government spending shocks, and thus has a critical impact on the size of government spending multipliers. In particular, our finding underscores a substantial role of the monetary policy stance against inflation in shaping government spending multipliers.

Journal

The B E Journal of Macroeconomicsde Gruyter

Published: Jan 1, 2023

Keywords: government spending multiplier; monetary policy; time-varying coefficient VAR; C11; E32; E62; E52

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