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Tactical Prevention of Suicide Bombings in Israel

Tactical Prevention of Suicide Bombings in Israel Suicide bombings are the leading cause of death from terrorism in Israel. Counterterror tactics, such as the targeted killings or preemptive arrests of terror leaders or suspects, are meant to prevent such attacks. To investigate whether these tactics are successful, we estimated via maximum likelihood a family of shot-noise models from monthly data covering 2001 through 2003 to see whether we could predict the rate of suicide-bombing attacks as a function of prevention tactics over time. Although preventive arrests appear to lower the rate of suicide-bombing attacks, targeted killings seem to be followed by an increase in the number of suicide bombings. In addition, limited evidence suggests that the probability of intercepting a suicide bomber en route to an attack increases with the expected number of suicide-bombing attacks. Such an endogenous relationship could imply an upper limit on the rate of successful suicide bombings. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Interfaces INFORMS

Tactical Prevention of Suicide Bombings in Israel

Interfaces , Volume 36 (6): 9 – Nov 1, 2006
9 pages

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Publisher
INFORMS
Copyright
Copyright © INFORMS
Subject
Research Article
ISSN
0092-2102
eISSN
1526-551X
DOI
10.1287/inte.1060.0242
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Suicide bombings are the leading cause of death from terrorism in Israel. Counterterror tactics, such as the targeted killings or preemptive arrests of terror leaders or suspects, are meant to prevent such attacks. To investigate whether these tactics are successful, we estimated via maximum likelihood a family of shot-noise models from monthly data covering 2001 through 2003 to see whether we could predict the rate of suicide-bombing attacks as a function of prevention tactics over time. Although preventive arrests appear to lower the rate of suicide-bombing attacks, targeted killings seem to be followed by an increase in the number of suicide bombings. In addition, limited evidence suggests that the probability of intercepting a suicide bomber en route to an attack increases with the expected number of suicide-bombing attacks. Such an endogenous relationship could imply an upper limit on the rate of successful suicide bombings.

Journal

InterfacesINFORMS

Published: Nov 1, 2006

Keywords: Keywords : military: tactics and strategy ; probability: applications

References