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A Model of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with Contact Tracing

A Model of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with Contact Tracing A differential equations model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The model describes the dynamic interactions of the susceptible and infected populations of these countries. The model incorporates the principle features of contact tracing, namely, the number of contacts per identified infectious case, the likelihood that a traced contact is infectious, and the efficiency of the contact tracing process. The model is first fitted to current cumulative reported case data in each country. The data fitted simulations are then projected forward in time, with varying parameter regimes corresponding to contact tracing efficiencies. These projections quantify the importance of the identification, isolation, and contact tracing processes for containment of the epidemics. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png PLoS Currents Pubmed Central

A Model of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with Contact Tracing

PLoS Currents , Volume 7 – Jan 30, 2015

A Model of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with Contact Tracing

PLoS Currents , Volume 7 – Jan 30, 2015

Abstract


A differential equations model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The model describes the dynamic interactions of the susceptible and infected populations of these countries. The model incorporates the principle features of contact tracing, namely, the number of contacts per identified infectious case, the likelihood that a traced contact is infectious, and the efficiency of the contact tracing process. The model is first fitted to current cumulative reported case data in each country. The data fitted simulations are then projected forward in time, with varying parameter regimes corresponding to contact tracing efficiencies. These projections quantify the importance of the identification, isolation, and contact tracing processes for containment of the epidemics.

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References (48)

Publisher
Pubmed Central
eISSN
2157-3999
DOI
10.1371/currents.outbreaks.846b2a31ef37018b7d1126a9c8adf22a
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

A differential equations model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The model describes the dynamic interactions of the susceptible and infected populations of these countries. The model incorporates the principle features of contact tracing, namely, the number of contacts per identified infectious case, the likelihood that a traced contact is infectious, and the efficiency of the contact tracing process. The model is first fitted to current cumulative reported case data in each country. The data fitted simulations are then projected forward in time, with varying parameter regimes corresponding to contact tracing efficiencies. These projections quantify the importance of the identification, isolation, and contact tracing processes for containment of the epidemics.

Journal

PLoS CurrentsPubmed Central

Published: Jan 30, 2015

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