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Economics, COVID, Election Forecasting: Did Trump Escape Blame?

Economics, COVID, Election Forecasting: Did Trump Escape Blame? Given Trump’s provocative personal profile, coupled with boasts of his political prowess, one might expect that the electorate would not allocate praise or blame at the ballot box in the usual reward and punishment way. They might blame him more than other candidates or, indeed, they might blame him less. Utilizing election forecasting as a benchmark, in particular the structural model of political economy, we assess whether voters blamed him less for his faltering performance with respect to leading policy issues, particularly the economy and COVID-19. Our findings suggest that, contrary to claims from supporters, voters punished him at least as much as they punished past presidents, when confronted with similar issue contexts. The Trump image of a leader with superior powers has the character of fiction, rather than fact. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png American Politics Research SAGE

Economics, COVID, Election Forecasting: Did Trump Escape Blame?

Tien, Charles; Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
American Politics Research , Volume 51 (5): 14 – Sep 1, 2023
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References (50)

Publisher
SAGE
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2023
ISSN
1532-673X
eISSN
1552-3373
DOI
10.1177/1532673x231168584
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Given Trump’s provocative personal profile, coupled with boasts of his political prowess, one might expect that the electorate would not allocate praise or blame at the ballot box in the usual reward and punishment way. They might blame him more than other candidates or, indeed, they might blame him less. Utilizing election forecasting as a benchmark, in particular the structural model of political economy, we assess whether voters blamed him less for his faltering performance with respect to leading policy issues, particularly the economy and COVID-19. Our findings suggest that, contrary to claims from supporters, voters punished him at least as much as they punished past presidents, when confronted with similar issue contexts. The Trump image of a leader with superior powers has the character of fiction, rather than fact.

Journal

American Politics Research – SAGE

Published: Sep 1, 2023

Keywords: economic voting; election forecasting; 2020 US presidential election

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