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A Philosophical Critique of Empirical Arguments for Postmortem SurvivalExotic Counter-Explanations

A Philosophical Critique of Empirical Arguments for Postmortem Survival: Exotic Counter-Explanations [In Chapter 7 and Chapter 8, we saw that in Bayesian arguments for survival, the posterior probability of the survival hypothesis, Pr(S | E & K), depends on the prior probability of the survival hypothesis, Pr(S | K), and the explanatory power of the survival hypothesis, Pr(E | S & K)/Pr(E | K).1 Since the explanatory power of any hypothesis h is formally expressed as the fraction of h’s likelihood over the prior probability of the evidence e, the explanatory power of h will be very great to the extent that h’s likelihood is high and e’s prior probability is low. In other words, the explanatory power of a hypothesis will be very great to the extent that the hypothesis leads us to expect the evidence and the evidence is otherwise improbable. And the evidence will be otherwise improbable just if there is no rival hypothesis with significant prior probability that leads us to expect the evidence at least as well as does the survival hypothesis.] http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png

A Philosophical Critique of Empirical Arguments for Postmortem SurvivalExotic Counter-Explanations

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Publisher
Palgrave Macmillan UK
Copyright
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016
ISBN
978-1-349-55255-9
Pages
246 –280
DOI
10.1057/9781137440945_10
Publisher site
See Chapter on Publisher Site

Abstract

[In Chapter 7 and Chapter 8, we saw that in Bayesian arguments for survival, the posterior probability of the survival hypothesis, Pr(S | E & K), depends on the prior probability of the survival hypothesis, Pr(S | K), and the explanatory power of the survival hypothesis, Pr(E | S & K)/Pr(E | K).1 Since the explanatory power of any hypothesis h is formally expressed as the fraction of h’s likelihood over the prior probability of the evidence e, the explanatory power of h will be very great to the extent that h’s likelihood is high and e’s prior probability is low. In other words, the explanatory power of a hypothesis will be very great to the extent that the hypothesis leads us to expect the evidence and the evidence is otherwise improbable. And the evidence will be otherwise improbable just if there is no rival hypothesis with significant prior probability that leads us to expect the evidence at least as well as does the survival hypothesis.]

Published: Dec 21, 2015

Keywords: Prior Probability; Survival Hypothesis; Psychological Profile; Empirical Argument; Deceased Person

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