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[Robert Leslie Ellis’s work in mathematical statistics and probability can be conveniently grouped under three headings: (1) his 1844 critique of the justifications of the method of least squares, (2) his short 1842 paper on the foundations of probability (with a brief follow-up in 1854), and (3) his return to least squares in 1850. The first of these was a brilliant dissection of two major and one minor derivation of least squares, each under different sets of assumptions. It was the most cited and admired of his mathematical works during his lifetime, and indeed in the nineteenth century. The second was not influential in the 19th century, but it may be the most cited of his works in the twentieth century, when, after the contributions of John Venn (1834–1923), it caught the eyes of a number of philosophers as a partial anticipation of Venn. The third, his return to the topic of 1844, after an 1850 review by John F.W. Herschel (1792–1871) had added a new wrinkle to an old topic, may have been less successful, but it still sheds new light on his understanding. I propose to treat these three topics in that order, with the emphasis being on a brief summary of the issues and a critique of how they may be thought of in the light of current historical understanding. Regarding the third, I will also present a previously unpublished letter from Ellis on the topic.]
Published: Apr 13, 2022
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