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Agent-Based Modelling in Population StudiesRegression Metamodels for Sensitivity Analysis in Agent-Based Computational Demography

Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies: Regression Metamodels for Sensitivity Analysis in... [Agent-based computational simulation models can be complex and this can make it difficult to understand which processes are driving model behaviour. Sensitivity analysis by means of metamodels can greatly facilitate the understanding of the behaviour of complex simulation models. However, this method has so far largely been neglected in agent-based computational demography, with few exceptions. In this chapter, I illustrate how sensitivity analysis can be conducted by means of regression metamodels. I argue that this type of metamodel is particularly attractive for use in agent-based computational demography due to the fact that most demographers have at least a basic understanding of multiple regression. This makes this type of metamodel highly accessible and easy to communicate. After describing the basics of regression metamodels, I illustrate their use by conducting a sensitivity analysis of an agent-based model of educational assortative mating that is based on data on the structure of Belgian marriage markets between 1921 and 2012. I close the chapter with a discussion of the benefits and limitations of regression metamodels and point the reader to further readings on this topic.] http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png

Agent-Based Modelling in Population StudiesRegression Metamodels for Sensitivity Analysis in Agent-Based Computational Demography

Part of the The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis Book Series (volume 41)
Editors: Grow, André; Van Bavel, Jan
Grow, André
Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies — Aug 12, 2016
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References (43)

Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Copyright
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017
ISBN
978-3-319-32281-0
Pages
185 –210
DOI
10.1007/978-3-319-32283-4_7
Publisher site
See Chapter on Publisher Site

Abstract

[Agent-based computational simulation models can be complex and this can make it difficult to understand which processes are driving model behaviour. Sensitivity analysis by means of metamodels can greatly facilitate the understanding of the behaviour of complex simulation models. However, this method has so far largely been neglected in agent-based computational demography, with few exceptions. In this chapter, I illustrate how sensitivity analysis can be conducted by means of regression metamodels. I argue that this type of metamodel is particularly attractive for use in agent-based computational demography due to the fact that most demographers have at least a basic understanding of multiple regression. This makes this type of metamodel highly accessible and easy to communicate. After describing the basics of regression metamodels, I illustrate their use by conducting a sensitivity analysis of an agent-based model of educational assortative mating that is based on data on the structure of Belgian marriage markets between 1921 and 2012. I close the chapter with a discussion of the benefits and limitations of regression metamodels and point the reader to further readings on this topic.]

Published: Aug 12, 2016

Keywords: Parameter Combination; Male Agent; Experimental Region; Marriage Market; Female Agent

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