Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

China’s emergence and development challenges that China faces in Central Asia

China’s emergence and development challenges that China faces in Central Asia cz38@st-andrews.ac.uk Development in Central Asia faces intensifying headwinds in various aspects. Terrorism School of International Relations, University of St Andrews, St and political instability have been the primary sources of concern for this chessboard Andrews, UK of rivaling great powers. The US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan left a power vacuum, and the region’s future is further clouded by elevated uncertainty. The so-called ‘new Cold War’ discourse is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy that contextualizes regional geopolitical maneuverings. These developments present a pressing need to evaluate development challenges in Central Asia in the context of China’s rising influence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative and other regional frameworks, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and China Pakistan Economic Corridor. This paper seeks to examine the shifting geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape in Central Asia in the context of global ideological confrontations and the regional Great Game between China and Russia. Drawing on think tank reports, English-language media reports, and scholarly works, it argues that China’s investment and development strategy in Central Asia can be improved by giving geopolitical and geoeconomic fac- tors full consideration. The changing political dynamics in the region have significant implications for China’s engagement with Central Asian countries, its broader Belt and Road Initiative extending through Central Asia to Europe, and development challenges that transcend the dualistic categorization of development and security. Keywords: Central Asia, Sino-Russian relations, Terrorism, Belt and Road Initiative, Security cooperation Introduction Development in Central Asia faces intensifying headwinds in various aspects. Ter- rorism and political instability have been the primary sources of concern for this chessboard of rivaling great powers. The ongoing pandemic compounded transborder issues, as the lack of vaccines is also posing public health challenges to neighboring regions (Lehmann, 2021). Furthermore, the US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan left a power vacuum, and the region’s future is further clouded by elevated uncertainty. The so-called ‘new Cold War’ discourse is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy that con - textualizes the geopolitical maneuverings in the region. Speculation has spread inter- nationally about China’s willingness and capability to further boost its presence in Central Asia’s development and security. These developments present a pressing need © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the mate- rial. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http:// creat iveco mmons. org/ licen ses/ by/4. 0/. Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 2 of 16 to evaluate development challenges in Central Asia in the context of China’s rising influence in the region. Central Asia is strategically important to China for a few reasons. Economically, con- nected to the region through the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (hereinafter Xinjiang), China has increased its investment in post-Soviet Central Asia more than 100-fold since 1991 (O’Reilly, 2015). Geographically, the borders that China shares with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stretch over 3,300  km, offering great opportunity as well as nontraditional security challenges, such as terrorism, drug traf- ficking and illegal migration (Yuan, 2010). This resource-rich region is also a strate - gically important means for China to diversify its sources of energy supplies, which previously relied primarily on the Middle East and the Gulf (Yuan, 2010; Zogg, 2019). Over the past decade, China’s ‘Going Out’ strategy has been further materialized by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in which ‘Central Asia is an important and danger- ous crossroads for China’s expanding global influence’ (O’Reilly, 2015). The BRI is not only a foreign policy project, and China’s investment in infrastructure abroad could also ‘help transportation of resources and goods between China and Central Asia, helping to develop China’s interior’ (O’Reilly, 2015). China’s emergence in Central Asia has drastically changed the power dynamics in the region. Through the BRI, China will contribute to the $26 trillion needed for infrastruc - ture investment in Asia until 2030 (Asian Development Bank, 2017), which could also help solve China’s problem of excess capacity (OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2018, 2018). However, China’s investment strategy in Central Asia has recently shifted from major infrastructure projects to manufacturing, and the diversification of economic portfolios fits with Central Asian countries’ expectations (Stronski and Ng, 2018: 11). Against this backdrop, it is imperative to understand new challenges and opportunities arising from shifting political and economic dynamics in the region. This paper seeks to examine Central Asia’s shifting geopolitical landscape in the context of global ideological confrontations and the regional Great Game between Russia and China. Development challenges will be analyzed in the context of China’s engagement with Central Asia. This focus limits the scope of this paper to four topics – Sino-Russian competition, which sets the scene for the rivalry between these great powers; Central Asia’s reception of China’s influence, which offers a less-explored but much-needed perspective on China’s expand - ing power; instability in Afghanistan after the US’s withdrawal, which addresses the most recent major change in Central Asia’s geopolitical landscape; and the threat of terrorism, which is often considered China’s greatest concern without further scrutiny. By tracing the recent developments in the region, this paper qualitatively examines the challenges for development in Central Asia. The data, collected from think tank reports, English-language media reports, and scholarly works, are analyzed through a geoeconomic framework, which facilitates a better understanding of the relationship between the wider geopolitical dynamics and China’s ‘geostrategic use of economic power’ (Wigell, 2016: 137) among BRI countries in Central Asia. By doing so, this paper seeks to identify risk factors arising from the shifting great power rivalry and local con- ditions in the region. The changing political dynamics in the region have significant implications for Chi - na’s future engagement with Central Asian countries, its broader BRI extending through Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 3 of 16 Central Asia to Europe, and development challenges that transcend the dualistic catego- rization of development and security (Allouche and Lind, 2013). The remainder of this paper will proceed as follows. The second section will contex - tualize the discussion with a brief overview of Sino-Russian relations, focusing on the countries’ shared interests, competition, and friction in various realms. The third section will complement the Russia-centered discussion by focusing on Central Asian states’ reception of China’s expanding influence in the region. The fourth section will focus on the instability in Afghanistan after the US’s chaotic withdrawal in 2021 and its implica- tions for regional security. The fifth section will explore the threats posed by terrorism and extremism in the region. Sino‑Russian competition This section provides a brief overview of the regional Great Game between Russia and China to contextualize the discussion of China’s emergence in Central Asia. Given the drastic change in the geopolitical landscape, the roles of the two great powers cannot be underestimated. Their relations are key to stability in Central Asia. Confronted with talk of a ‘new Cold War’, Russia and China have been pushed into each other’s arms as the US considers both as sources of security threats, and thus, they have more shared interests than potential areas of conflict when the US remains the top rival for both countries. Russia and China have the same concerns about ‘color revolutions’ perpetuated by the US-led international system (Stronski and Ng, 2018; Yuan, 2010), which have overthrown a number of post-Soviet governments (Piekos and Economy, 2015). In particular, the ‘color revolutions’ in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan and the 2005 Andijan incident in Uzbeki- stan pushed Russia further into the arms of the SCO and prompted it to engage more actively in counterterrorism cooperation in the region (Yuan, 2010). In other words, both countries are concerned about ‘any American strategic projection into resource- rich areas on their borders’ (O’Reilly, 2015). As the US ‘became more engaged actively in East Asia, and began lobbying for NATO expansions into Georgia and Ukraine’, Russia and China became more strategically aligned (Asiryan and He, 2020). This tendency has become clearer since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite the shared interests, observers often view Sino-Russian relations as temporary and fragile – a so-called ‘axis of convenience’ (Lo, 2008). Indeed, as Sino-Russian rela- tions are driven more by interests rather than identity, the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan represents a significant shift in the political dynamics in the region. In this context, Russia has not been very enthusiastic about China’s presence in the region. First, while the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is led by both China and Russia, China has been active in carrying out military exercises within this frame- work, making it a potential competitor of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Nevertheless, although incorporating ‘all of the CSTO’s Central Asian members plus Russia, China, India and Pakistan’, SCO does not challenge Russia’s dominance in terms of military defense in the region (Weitz, 2018: 74). There are some concerns over an alleged military base in Tajikistan funded and built by China (Eurasianet, 2020; Y Jiang, 2021a, b; Zogg, 2019). It is said that the base, agreed upon between Tajikistan’s Interior Ministry and China’s Public Security Ministry, with $10 million from China, will focus on ‘counterterrorism amid arising concerns over Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 4 of 16 instability in neighboring Afghanistan’ (Devonshire-Ellis, 2021). However, such reports have been dismissed by both China and Tajikistan (ANI, 2021). China’s defense policy provides that China will not establish any military base abroad, and the one in Djibouti is framed as a ‘logistics’ base. Therefore, although there may be military cooperation between China and Tajikistan, it is likely to be conducted within the existing regional frameworks. Publicly establishing a military base would be an open violation of China’s own defense policy, which would be a sign of a major shift in China’s approach to and intended level of influence in Central Asia. Nevertheless, this exam - ple indicates that although China is constrained by its noninterventionism in regard to regional military cooperation, concerns exist in the region regarding its deepening military engagement. China’s limited scope for military cooperation with Central Asia is not considered a threat to Russia, which has a close working relationship with Tajik- istan within the CSTO (Umarov, 2021). Furthermore, Russia does not feel threatened, as Beijing does not seek to diminish Russian influence – Beijing’s military activities in the region are directed at securing its own security interests (Umarov, 2021). Second, power asymmetry in the region is exacerbated by economic asymmetry. China has become increasingly influential in Central Asia, with its economy eight times the size of Russia’s (Zogg, 2019). ‘As the SCO has achieved significant results in its cam - paign to crush terrorists’ movements in Central Asia’, according to Wang Yiwei, direc- tor of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University, ‘economic cooperation has inevitably been put on the agenda of the organization’ (Zhang and Yang, 2021). The SCO’s role in facilitating economic development is corroborated by its Secretary- General, Vladimir Imamovich Norov: ‘investment cooperation has become a significant agenda item within the SCO’ (Zhang and Yang, 2021). The Russia-led Eurasian Eco - nomic Union (EAEU) has been overshadowed by China’s BRI (Stronski and Ng, 2018; Weitz, 2018; Zogg, 2019). The Greater Eurasian Partnership, proposed by Putin in 2016, seeks to deepen Russia’s economic partnership across Eurasia and further consolidate Russia’s reach in the far east (Sahakyan, 2021). Interviews with Russian and Kazakh elites indicate skepticism toward Russia’s ‘Greater Eurasian Partnership’ and more ‘divergent opinions’, including positive views of and support for the BRI (Shakhanova and Garlick, 2020: 49). As China’s investment soars in Central Asia, power asymmetry between Russia and China is likely to feed the former’s insecurity toward the latter (Rolland, 2019: 15). China is a major practitioner of geoeconomics, and its economic power has given it leverage in inducing desired behavior from Central Asian countries. Holding the ‘upper hand in the relationship’, China now has the capability to ‘grow at the expense of Russia’, although it may decide not to do so (Stronski and Ng, 2018). This power asymmetry is likely to con - tinue, if not be made worse, by sanctions placed on Russia for its war against Ukraine, although China’s growth is also slowed by its zero-COVID policies. This shifting power asymmetry poses a challenge no less than the US’ geopoliti - cal maneuvering in the region. As Alexander Lukin (2021: 170) notes, ‘[a]ny possible changes in US policy will probably prove less of a deterrent to further Russian-Chinese rapprochement than will Russian concerns over China’s growing assertiveness’. As American influence dwindles in the region, the geopolitical rivalry between the two powers is potentially destabilizing. If they decide to ‘back different factions to project Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 5 of 16 their regional power’, this will create opportunities for terrorists to spread extremist ide- ology and violence in the common backyard of Russia and China (O’Reilly, 2015). Furthermore, the divergence of Chinese and Russian interests, especially regarding energy and economic integration in Central Asia, could manifest in incidents such as the Georgian crisis (Turner, 2011; Wishnick, 2009). Russia’s pursuit of power is considered at odds with China’s expanding influence in the energy arena (Freeman, 2018). ‘In 2009, the completion of pipelines to China broke the Russian monopoly on energy outlets for the region’ (Zogg, 2019). While China’s interest-based ‘new regionalism’ has limitations, as discussed above, it is more flexible than the traditional identity-based regionalism, exemplified by the EU (Chung, 2004: 993). This means that linguistic and cultural barriers are less of a problem for the tripartite relationship among China, Russia and Central Asia than they would have been in the EU. While examining key players, Russia and China, and the Great Game narrative is help- ful in sketching out the ‘big picture’, it is insufficient to capture the complexity of the geo - political landscape because it gives little agency to the Central Asian states (Asiryan and He, 2020). To complement the above analysis, the following section will focus on Central Asia’s reception of China’s expanding influence in the region. Central Asia’s reception of China’s influence This section focuses on how Central Asian countries have responded to Russian and Chinese influence. The agency of Central Asian countries has been overshadowed by discussions of rivalries between major powers. The attitudes of Central Asian countries are important for China to fine-tune its development strategy in the region. China’s expanding influence in the region is gradually changing locals’ perception of China. Unfavorable views of China have long existed in the region. Before the 1980s, the Soviet propaganda apparatus spread ‘extremely negative clichés about China’ (Peyrouse, 2016: 14). Since the outbreak of COVID-19, conspiracy theories regarding the origin of the virus have exacerbated anti-China racism across the globe. Already a geopoliti- cal battlefield, postpandemic Central Asia has become an arena for further Sino-Russian rivalry in terms of ‘vaccine diplomacy’ (Putz, 2021). While Central Asian countries enjoy close ties with Russia as former Soviet republics, they have also countered Russia’s aggressive foreign policy through regional organiza- tions and platforms that help diversify their ties to contain Russia’s rising influence in the region (Tskhay and Costa Buranelli, 2020: 1034). With China’s increasingly dominant presence in Central Asia, these countries will continue using regional frameworks for hedging purposes to balance China’s emergence. The current global anti-China sentiment poses further challenges to China establish - ing itself as a responsible regional power in Central Asia. China’s growing economic power and global influence can be viewed as threats when a record high number of peo - ple hold unfavorable views of the country (Silver et  al., 2020). Although Central Asian governments generally maintain good relations with the Chinese government, public opinion places constraints on these governments. For example, Kazakhstan saw a series of protests against a planned land reform in 2016 and Sinophobic protests against Chi- nese companies (Reuters, 2019). Similarly, survey data from the Central Asia Barometer Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 6 of 16 indicate increasing opposition in Uzbekistan to Chinese energy and infrastructure devel- opment in the region (Trilling, 2020). Furthermore, although the myth of ‘debt trap diplomacy’ has been debunked (Lee and Shahar, 2020), fear remains that the BRI’s lending mechanism will increase Tajikistan’s risk of debt distress (Chen, 2018) and debt dependence more generally in Central Asia (Tsikhay, 2021). The economic reliance developed along with the BRI does not help the countries deal with the structural problems facing their economies. Debt dependency is a concern not only for receiving states but also for China. The COVID-19 pandemic has put pressure on Central Asian countries, which already have low sovereign credit rat- ings, to pay off Chinese debts (Honig, 2020). Another factor that may impact Central Asia’s reception of China is the Russian media. Considering the impact of Russian media on Central Asia, their attitudes toward China also present a challenge to China’s image in the region. Kumakura (2021: 305) notes a sign of change in the Russian media, which have started swaying public opinion on Chi- na’s presence in Central Asia. This represents the shift of attitudes within Russia, where as Peyrouse observed, Sinophile circles were forming (Peyrouse, 2016: 18). China’s growing economic power in the region has increased demand to learn the Chi- nese language. The trend is seen in both schools and private education companies. For example, Chinese is becoming more popular than Russian in Tajik schools (Altynbayev, 2021). Nurzhan Baitemirov, founder of East‒West Education Group, is shifting his focus from English to Chinese (Farchy, 2016). Under Xi, China has invested heavily, within the SCO framework, in education diplomacy. Early in 2013, Xi visited Nazarbayev Univer- sity, offering 30,000 scholarships and inviting 10,000 teachers and students of the Confu - cius Institute to visit China (Xi, 2013). Since then, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of students from Central Asian countries receiving Chinese government schol- arships (JY Jiang, 2021a, b). There have been some successes in cultivating positive views toward China among Central Asian students (Chen and Jiménez-Tovar, 2017; Yau, 2021). The efforts to promote education diplomacy notwithstanding, Chinese language learning presents formidable challenges, as it is from a different language family than the Turkic and Slavic language families dominant in the region, and many students only complete the beginner level (Kumakura, 2021: 304). This is compounded by a perceived ‘civilizational difference’ and ‘impassable cultural barrier’ between Central Asia and China (Peyrouse, 2016: 22). While China’s ‘new regionalism’ in Central Asia is interest-based, identity factors still play a role. For example, the friendship sustained by investment was tainted by dem- onstrators at the Chinese consulate in Almaty, who demanded the release of their rel- atives allegedly detained in Xinjiang (Rymbetov, 2021). Incidents such as this have compounded the existing animosity against China’s growing influence in the field of oil industry (Rymbetov, 2021). Given China’s interest-based engagement with Central Asia, identity-related risks do not pose an immediate challenge to China’s geoeconomic strategy in the region. To date, all the Central Asian countries have supported China’s ethnic policy in Xinjiang. However, in the long run, identity-led distrust may limit China’s influence in economic cooperation. It remains a potential factor that may prevent China from translating its Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 7 of 16 economic power into actual leverage on controversial issues such as its approach to the Uyghur population in Central Asian countries. Instability in Afghanistan and its spillover in Central Asia This section focuses on recent developments in Afghanistan. The situation in Afghani - stan is particularly important after the US withdrew its military presence on 30 August 2021, leaving the Taliban to regain control. As this section will show, the return of the Taliban is a significant factor for Central Asia’s wider geopolitical landscape. Central Asia has already been considered a ‘hotbed for extremism’ due to its economic hardship and repression (Dalton, 2017), although the pervasive view that it poses a dan- ger to the West is largely unfounded (Heathershaw and Megoran, 2011). The ‘discourse of danger’ related to Central Asia contributes to the securitization of the region and jus- tification of the US’s war in Afghanistan (Cooley, 2021: 1991–2021). However, regard - less of the extent of securitization before the US’s withdrawal, the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan resulted in exacerbated chaos, leading to the spillover of the humanitarian crisis, drug economy and terrorism risks. The withdrawal of US troops marked the end of 20 years of US war, which cost thou - sands of lives and trillions of dollars (Associated Press, 2021). As one of the poorest countries and the largest illicit opiate supplier, Afghanistan was already suffering from a grave humanitarian crisis before the situation was aggravated by COVID-19. ‘In 2019 there were more than five million Afghan asylum seekers, refugees and internally dis - placed persons’ (Select Committee on International Relations and Defence, 2021: 4), presenting a grave challenge to the country’s immediate neighbors. Externally, Afghanistan relies heavily on foreign aid, and internally, it relies heavily on opium production. In 2017, opium production was estimated to be ‘worth some $1.4 bil- lion in sales by farmers or roughly 7% of Afghanistan’s GDP’, according to the UN Office of Drugs and Crime (Landay, 2021). As many rural jobs are dependent on poppy cultiva- tion, there are concerns, for example, within the UK (Select Committee on International Relations and Defence, 2021: 5), that humanitarian assistance could unwittingly sustain the narcotics trade. Political instability has also increased the risk of investing in Afghanistan’s natu- ral resources, which are estimated to be worth approximately $1 to $3 trillion (Azad, 2020; Reuters, 2021a). There have been a few Chinese attempts at investing in natural resources. Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd. and Metallurgical Corp of China took over the Mes Aynak copper mine in 2008, but construction has been delayed by instability (Zhang and Singh, 2021). In 2011, the former cabinet of Afghanistan approved a deal to allow the China National Petroleum Corporation to carry out oil exploration and extraction in the Amu Darya Basin over the following 25  years (BBC, 2011). This project was halted by local militia (Xin Kuaibao, 2012) and disagreements over the transportation of oil out of Afghanistan (Tolonews, 2013). These two examples capture the difficulties in investment in Afghanistan’s natural resources. The chaos in Afghanistan has already spilled over into Pakistan. The unguarded 2,570-km border (Landale, 2021) and political and ideological linkages between the two countries make it difficult to separate Islamic militancy between them (Mufti, 2012). Terrorism, on the rise since 2017, culminated in August 2021 with 35 attacks that killed Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 8 of 16 52 (Mangi et  al., 2021). Emboldened by these developments in Afghanistan, militant groups in Pakistan have already been keeping investment away (Mangi et  al., 2021). Attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) surged with the Afghan Taliban’s takeo- ver (Grossman, 2021). The TTP has merged ten militant groups since July 2020, includ - ing ‘three Pakistani affiliates of al-Qaeda’ (Sayed, 2021). Upon its takeover, the Afghan Taliban released hundreds of TTP members to pave the way for full ceasefire negotia - tions (Reuters, 2021b). The renewed security challenges posed by the developments in Afghanistan have increased Central Asian countries’ reliance on regional organizations such as the CSTO and SCO (Mallinson, 2021). As the SCO expanded to include India and Pakistan in 2017, it has given Russia and China greater leverage to address instability in Afghanistan. The inclusion of these two countries will help China and Russia develop multilateral plat- forms that are conducive to a more multipolar world order to counterbalance the US (Stronski and Ng, 2018: 15). In this context, postconflict reconstruction is the precondition for any major invest - ments. China stepped in almost immediately after the US’s withdrawal to provide relief, announcing $31 million worth of emergency aid, including food and water supplies, COVID-19 vaccines and medicine, on 8 September 2021 (CGTN, 2021). A week later, on 13 September, the US announced nearly $64 million of humanitarian assistance (USAID, 2021). The West’s reluctance to provide funds may drive Afghans closer to China and Paki - stan – two countries that responded quickly to its humanitarian crisis (Greenfield, 2021a). In addition to government-to-government aid, China’s involvement in postconflict reconstruction in Afghanistan is likely to be rolled out through regional frameworks. At a meeting of the heads of the SCO, President Xi emphasized the SCO’s role in facilitating a smooth Afghan transition and developing an inclusive political structure (Al Jazeera, 2021). Discussions were underway, even before the US withdrawal (Xie and Chu, 2021), to include Afghanistan in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), under which China has pledged over $60 million for infrastructure projects (Greenfield, 2021b). The extension of the CPEC to Afghanistan was endorsed by Hua Chunying, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: ‘China supports the CPEC’s extension to Afghanistan so that the Afghan people can benefit from the BRI’ (Rehman, 2020). Some scholars have expressed similar views (Xie and Chu, 2021). Among other postconflict reconstruction tasks, a key challenge to any further devel - opment in Afghanistan is the condition of its roads. In the past two decades, the coun- try’s 2,000-mile Ring Road has been repeatedly rebuilt and destroyed by terrorist attacks. The importance of road infrastructure to Afghanistan’s development and governance is captured in a Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) report: ‘if the Kabul to Kandahar highway were to become impassable, the central government would collapse’ (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, 2016b: 39). With $2.8 billion spent by 2016 (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruc- tion, 2016a), Afghanistan’s road infrastructure was crumbling when the Taliban took over (DW, 2021). The US’s approach to building the Ring Road was one of nation building. The Ring Road is designed to facilitate the delivery of public services and humanitarian aid; thus, Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 9 of 16 it was expected to bring legitimacy to the central government and to enable the US and NATO to send troops and supplies to keep the Taliban in check (Ellis, 2018). However, as the US’s attention was diverted to Iraq after 2003, it cut its funding for road construc- tion in Afghanistan. WikiLeaks geospatial attack data show that Taliban attacks esca- lated from 2004 to 2009 and were concentrated along the Ring Road (Shachtman, 2018). The absence of major roads that connect within Afghanistan prevents the transportation of supplies for any other development projects. While the US’s ‘nation-building’ approach did not succeed, road construction must be carried out alongside nation-building efforts. Research on the relationship between opium and road construction demonstrates that ‘where the rule of law is limited and opportunities for legal livelihoods remain scarce, investments in physical infrastructure can inadvertently incentivize illegal economic activity’ (Wigton-Jones, 2021: 405). Afghanistan was already subject to multiple sanctions when the Taliban took over, and the country’s economy was suffering from a severe drought, armed conflict and COVID-19. ‘[I] ts healthcare systems, and wider social fabric are heavily dependent on foreign assistance’ (Moret, 2021). A recent report highlights the unprecedented food crisis in Afghanistan, where ‘nearly 19 million people are highly food insecure due to prolonged drought, conflict and economic collapse’ (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, 2021: 1). With international sanctions in place, the private and not-for-profit sectors may face serious constraints in supply chains and financial exclusion – a phenomenon known as ‘overcompliance’, ‘derisking’ and the ‘chilling effect’ (Moret, 2021). This may exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. As calls for ‘strategic relief of some existing US and UN sanctions’ (Moret, 2021) are being made, there is a window of opportunity for China to engage in political dialog with the Taliban. Indeed, China called for lifting economic sanctions on Afghanistan, which would contribute to its reconstruction (Rachel, 2021). Although the US compromised by proposing humanitarian exceptions to the existing sanction regimes, it remains chal- lenging to reach international consensus on the provision of humanitarian assistance under the 1988 Afghanistan sanctions regime (United Nations Security Council, 2021a). Opponents of the US’s initial proposal of 9  months, such as China and Russia, argued that the exemption that would allow humanitarian assistance should not be subject to a time limit but were willing to accept a 12-month period. Others, including France, Esto- nia, India and the UK, advocated for a shorter time limit of 6  months (United Nations Security Council, 2021a). Terrorist threats The issue of terrorism captures the intertwined nature of security and development, as the ‘root causes’ of terrorism are often considered embedded in the socioeconomic conditions of certain disadvantaged groups or individuals. Although observers often cite the issue of East Turkistan forces as China’s major concern in the region, this issue is conflated with the controversies surrounding deradicalization programs in Xinjiang and is understood, especially in Western media, as an excuse for power abuse. The con - flation of these two issues obscures the actual scale of Uyghur militancy. This section seeks to examine terrorist activities that may cause significant disruption to develop - ment by actors, including the terrorists who target Chinese interests and other local Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 10 of 16 terrorist networks that pose a threat to economic development more generally. For the purpose of this paper, ‘Uyghur militants’ are defined as Uyghur individuals who advo - cate for an independent ‘East Turkistan’ (what the Chinese authorities call the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region) through violent means. While the designation of terrorists according to China’s Anti-Terror Law remains controversial, it is beyond the scope of this paper and discussed elsewhere (see Zhang, 2019). This paper does not assume that Uyghurs, predominantly Sunni Muslims, are more susceptible to radicalization than any other groups. Given that ethnic relations between Uyghurs and Han have suffered from tensions intensified in the Sino-US rivalry, a small number of radicalized Uyghurs found their way to radicalism, joining forces with extremists in Central Asia and the Middle East. Uyghur militants have operated under several names but have been given the label of ‘East Turkistan forces’ by the Chinese authorities. The labeling of all the Uyghur activist groups and individuals as ‘East Turkestan forces’ is misleading for three reasons. First, it obscures the dynamics within the group. Under the mistranslated East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), the Turkic Islamic Party (TIP) can be viewed as a jihadist wing, and the Istanbul-based, Uyghur-led East Turk- istan Education and Solidarity Association (ETESA) can be viewed as an Islamic wing (Zenn, 2018). The latter is not considered a terrorist organization in most countries, which poses challenges to China, making it difficult to facilitate international counter - terrorism cooperation. Second, lumping Uyghur terrorist groups together as ‘East Turkestan forces’ does not help distinguish terrorists from the law-abiding Uyghur diaspora whose support is crucial to the legitimacy of China’s deradicalization programs. According to a UN report, several hundred members of the TIP are located in Badakhshan and Afghani- stan (United Nations Security Council, 2021b: 19). This small group of militants must be differentiated from the 10 million Uyghurs who currently reside in Central Asia (IRIN News, 2001). According to Salih Hudayar, the Uyghur president and founder of the Washington-based East Turkistan National Awakening Movement, although Uyghurs in China and the people of Afghanistan belong to the Hanafi sect of Sunni Muslims, most Uyghurs are liberal and view the Taliban as very extreme (Kashgarian, 2021). It remains difficult for the Chinese authorities to differentiate between violent extremists and local supporters in Central Asia who have family in Xinjiang. Although Central Asian govern- ments are generally cooperative within the SCO framework, it is in the interests of the Chinese government not to alienate the 10 million Uyghurs in Central Asia. Third, terrorists from Xinjiang have been working with local terrorist organizations. Given the support from local terrorist networks to help a small number of Uyghurs flee to Syria, assessing the connections between terrorists from Xinjiang and terrorist net- works in Central Asia is a prerequisite for any development plans in the region. In 2008, the TIP released its first video indicating an ideological affinity with al-Qaeda and loy - alty to the Taliban (Zenn, 2018). In the Syrian civil war, some have shifted loyalty to the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Syria (Zenn, 2017). In 2016, when the Syria Civil War was at its height, terrorists from Xinjiang heightened their presence with a few propa- ganda videos explicitly targeting China, some of which included scenes of child soldiers. Uyghur participants in the Syrian Civil War operated as part of the TIP, also known as ‘Katibat Turkistani’, translated as the ‘Turkistan Brigade’ (Clarke and Kan, 2017). Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 11 of 16 The exact number of Uyghur foreign fighters has been subject to debate, ranging from 300, as estimated by the Chinese authorities, to 5,000, a number given by Syria’s ambas- sador to China (Blanchard, 2017). The actual number of Uyghur foreign fighters likely rose from a few hundred in 2013 to over 3,000 in 2020, based on various sources (Boto- bekov, 2017; Israeli Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center, 2014; Rosenblatt, 2016; United Nations Security Council, 2020; Watts, 2016). As China has become a prominent target for terrorists from Xinjiang, the instability in Central Asia provides an arena for scattered terrorists to regroup and renew their connections with local terrorist networks such as the Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Hizb ut-Tahrir (HuT), Islamic State—Wilayat Khorasan (ISWK) and local Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) (The SecDev Group, 2018). Attacks against Chinese interests in the region, such as the 2016 Chinese embassy bombing in Bishkek, are likely to reoc- cur (Zenn, 2017). Adding to the difficulty of identifying terrorists, it remains unknown how many for - eign terrorist fighters from Central Asian countries were Uyghurs. Central Asian coun - tries have been recognized as one of the major sources of foreign terrorist fighters who travel to conflict zones to engage in terrorist activities. The number of foreign fighters from Central Asia to Syria was between 2,000 and 5,000 (Lemon, 2018). The number of foreign terrorist fighters from areas including Central Asia, Russia, Pakistan and Xin - jiang was between 8,000 and 10,000 in June 2020 (United Nations Security Council, 2021b: 18). The situation has been further complicated by the US’s withdrawal from Syria and COVID-19. The US pullout was accompanied by reports of prison breaks of hundreds of ISIL prisoners (Al Jazeera, 2019). More prison breaks were reported in March as global attention shifted to COVID-19 (McKernan, 2020). It remains unknown whether any ter- rorists from Xinjiang were among these prisoners. China’s high level of control over its borders has thus far helped keep terrorists away from its territory. However, Central Asian countries remain strategically important for China’s domestic security because they are likely to be chosen as a haven and a staging ground to launch further attacks against China (Clarke and Kan, 2017: 11). Some return- ing fighters have already been reported in Afghanistan (Small, 2017). Online violent extremist content permeates Central Asian social media. A 2018 report ‘found 140 Central Asian social media accounts that were actively distributing VE [vio- lent extremism] content to over 324,000 subscribers’ even though content-blocking mechanisms were in place; more effective means such as education and engagement were underdeveloped in the region (The SecDev Group, 2018: 3). As long as China con- tinues to ‘go out’, stability in Central Asia remains a key factor in protecting Chinese overseas interests. On the other hand, Central Asia provides a key multilateral platform for China to carry out counterterrorism activities, even though Afghanistan is not a member of the SCO. Central Asia plays a facilitating role in Afghanistan’s peace and security process (Guterres, 2018). Tajikistan shares a border with Afghanistan that is approximately 1,300  km long, allowing for terrorist infiltration (Weitz, 2018: 8). The ‘Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism in Counter-Terrorism’ was established in 2016 by Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and Tajikistan to facilitate multilateral regional Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 12 of 16 security coordination beyond the SCO (Korybko, 2019). In August 2020, China con- vinced Pakistan to open five key border crossings to allow bilateral trade with Afghani - stan and transit trade of Afghan exports to India (South Asia Monitor, 2020), which also decreased ‘Afghan’s dependence on the Chabahar port in Iran’ (Azad, 2020). Even Chi- na’s military activity ‘near the Tajik-Afghan border has more to do with Afghanistan than Central Asia’ (Asiryan and He, 2020). Conclusion This paper has evaluated the threat posed by geopolitical rivalry, the geoeconomic land - scape, regional instability, and terrorism in Central Asia. These security challenges have great implications and policy relevance for development and for China’s involvement in this region. The discussion of the four interconnected topics has shown that to under - stand China’s emergence and the development challenges that it faces in the region, Chi- na’s engagement with Central Asian countries cannot be severed from the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscapes and the existing security threats that already confront the region. This paper concludes with the following four observations. First, constructive Sino-Russian relations that focus on shared interests are condu- cive to regional security. The regional frameworks led by the two countries may become competitive, for example, CSTO versus SCO and EAEU versus BRI. However, it is in the interests of regional peace that the two countries develop their respective competitive advantages to develop the region together. If the two engage in zero-sum competition, the region will rapidly descend into a battlefield of proxy wars and a source of terrorism and refugees. Second, while China’s education diplomacy is cultivating positive opinions toward China in Central Asia, more needs to be done to address postpandemic anti-China sen- timents that are rooted in the Soviet era. Having been influenced by the Russian lan - guage and culture for decades, people in Central Asia need time to catch up with the shifting power dynamics. Third, Afghanistan, which has recently seen the departure of the US, presents consid - erable challenges to regional security. The Taliban’s former ties to international terrorist organizations cannot be severed completely, as exemplified by the release of TPP prison - ers. Its economy, which is highly dependent on aid and opium production, is in dire need of structural reform before humanitarian aid can truly benefit the people. Infrastructure projects such as roads are crucial to pave the way for peace in landlocked and moun- tainous countries such as Afghanistan. At the same time, building infrastructure without nation building could inadvertently contribute to the illicit drug trade. Fourth, to create conditions for better counterterrorism cooperation, efforts must be made to differentiate terrorists and the 10 million Uyghur people residing in Cen - tral Asia. Further research needs to evaluate the actual capability of Uyghur militants to launch any attacks against China. Such research will also help narrow the overbroad counterterrorism agenda, a subject of much international criticism. Acknowledgements The author is very grateful to the anonymous reviewers and the editors of the journal for their thoughtful and construc- tive feedback and editorial support. Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 13 of 16 Authors’ contributions All authors are involved in theory construction, case analysis and article writing. All author(s) read and approved the final manuscript. Funding British Academy Postdoctoral Fellowship: PF20_100052. Availability of data and materials Not applicable. Declarations Competing interests The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Received: 30 March 2022 Accepted: 5 July 2022 References Allouche, Jeremy, and Jeremy Lind. 2013. Development and security in a changing world. In Institute of Development Studies. https:// core. ac. uk/ downl oad/ pdf/ 19918 315. pdf. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Al Jazeera. 2019. Hundreds of ISIL prisoners escape Syrian camp, Kurds say. https:// www. aljaz eera. com/ news/ 2019/ 10/ 13/ hundr eds- of- isil- priso ners- escape- syrian- camp- kurds- say. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Al Jazeera. 2021. China’s Xi: SCO states should help drive smooth Afghan transition. https:// www. aljaz eera. com/ news/ 2021/9/ 17/ chinas- xi- sco- states- should- help- drive- smooth- afghan- trans ition. Accessed 29 Sept 2021. Altynbayev, Kanat. 2021. China’s security expansion in Tajikistan sparks concerns in Russia. https:// centr al. asia- news. com/ en_ GB/ artic les/ cnmi_ ca/ featu res/ 2021/ 12/ 13/ featu re- 01. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. ANI. 2021. Tajikistan denies reports of Chinese constructing military base on its border with Afghanistan. https:// www. anine ws. in/ news/ world/ asia/ tajik istan- denies- repor ts- of- chine se- const ructi ng- milit ary- base- on- its- border- with- afgha nista n2021 10311 95811/. Accessed 27 Dec 2021. Asian Development Bank. 2017. Meeting Asia’s infrastructure needs, 0 ed. Manila: Asian Development Bank. https:// doi. org/ 10. 22617/ FLS16 8388-2. Asiryan, Aleksey, and Yiming He. 2020. The dynamics of Sino-Russian relations in Central Asia. In E-International Relations. https:// www.e- ir. info/ 2020/ 10/ 25/ the- dynam ics- of- sino- russi an- relat ions- in- centr al- asia/. Accessed 20 Dec 2021. Associated Press. 2021. The cost of America’s longest war: Thousands of lives, trillions of dollars. https:// www. voane ws. com/a/ south- centr al- asia_ cost- ameri cas- longe st- war- thous ands- lives- trill ions- dolla rs/ 62101 61. html. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Azad, Sohrab. 2020. China’s stake in the Afghan peace process. https:// thedi plomat. com/ 2020/ 09/ chinas- stake- in- the- afghan- peace- proce ss/. Accessed 29 Sept 2021. BBC. 2011. China gets approval for Afghanistan oil exploration bid. BBC News, December 27. https:// www. bbc. com/ news/ busin ess- 16336 453. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Blanchard, Ben. 2017. Syria says up to 5,000 Chinese Uighurs fighting in militant groups. Reuters, May 11. https:// www. reute rs. com/ artic le/ uk- midea st- crisis- syria- china/ syria- says- up- to- 5000- chine se- uighu rs- fight ing- in- milit ant- groups- idUSK BN184 0UP. Botobekov, Uran. 2017. Uighur foreign fighters: Al Qaeda’s connection. https:// www. euras iarev iew. com/ 10122 017- china- and- the- turke stan- islam ic- party- from- separ atism- to- world- jihad- analy sis/. Accessed 19 Oct 2019. CGTN. 2021. Wang Yi says Afghanistan stands at crossroads of history. https:// news. cgtn. com/ news/ 2021- 09- 08/ Afghan- neigh bors- hold- FMs- meeti ng- 13oqr TC28Mg/ index. html. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Chen, Yueyi. 2018. Belt and Road Initiative increases sovereign debt risks in Tajikistan. https:// globa lrisk insig hts. com/ 2018/ 07/ belt- and- road- initi ative- incre ases- sover eign- debt- risks- in- tajik istan/. Accessed 21 Dec 2021. Chen, Julie Yu-Wen, and Soledad Jiménez-Tovar. 2017. China in Central Asia: Local perceptions from future elites. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies 03 (03): 429–445. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1142/ S2377 74001 75001 78 ( World Century ). Chung, Chien-peng. 2004. The Shanghai Co-operation Organization: China’s changing influence in Central Asia. The China Quarterly 180: 989–1009. Clarke, Colin P., and Paul Rexton Kan. 2017. Uighur Foreign Fighters: An Underexamined Jihadist Challenge. ICCT Policy Brief, November. International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. https:// icct. nl/ publi cation/ uighur- forei gn- fight ers- an- under exami ned- jihad ist- chall enge/. Cooley, Alexander. 2021. On the brink and at the world’s edge: Western approaches to Central Asia’s international politics, 1991–2021. Central Asian Survey 40 (4): 555–575. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 02634 937. 2021. 19748 18 (Routledge). Dalton, Ben. 2017. Is Central Asia a ‘hotbed for extremism’?. https:// www. aljaz eera. com/ news/ 2017/ 11/6/ nyc- attack- is- centr al- asia-a- hotbed- for- extre mism. Accessed 29 Sept 2021. Devonshire-Ellis, Chris. 2021. China to build military bases in Tajikistan. Silk road briefing. https:// www. silkr oadbr iefing. com/ news/ 2021/ 11/ 02/ china- to- build- milit ary- bases- in- tajik istan/. Accessed 27 Dec 2021. DW. 2021. Afghanistan: Taliban road construction projects stall without foreign funding. https:// www. dw. com/ en/ afgha nistan- talib an- road- const ructi on- proje cts- stall- witho ut- forei gn- fundi ng/a- 59536 988. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Ellis, Sam. 2018. How the US failed to rebuild Afghanistan. https:// www. vox. com/ world/ 2018/1/ 11/ 16878 056/ afgha nistan- us- fail- war- talib an. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 14 of 16 Eurasianet. 2020. Tajikistan: Secret Chinese base becomes slightly less secret. https:// euras ianet. org/ tajik istan- secret- chine se- base- becom es- sligh tly- less- secret. Accessed 24 Dec 2021. Farchy, Jack. 2016. Kazakh language schools shift from English to Chinese. Financial Times, May 9. https:// www. ft. com/ conte nt/ 6ce4a 6ac- 0c85- 11e6- 9456- 444ab 5211a 2f. Accessed 4 Oct 2021. Freeman, Carla P. 2018. New strategies for an old rivalry? China-Russia relations in Central Asia after the energy boom. The Pacific Review 31 (5): 635–654. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 09512 748. 2017. 13987 75 (Routledge). Greenfield, Charlotte. 2021a. Analysis: As West ponders aid for Afghanistan, China and Pakistan quick to provide relief. Reuters, September 12. https:// www. reute rs. com/ world/ middle- east/ west- ponde rs- aid- afgha nistan- china- pakis tan- quick- provi de- relief- 2021- 09- 12/. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Greenfield, Charlotte. 2021b. Pakistan discussing expansion of CPEC to Afghanistan -ambassador. Reuters, September 27. https:// www. reute rs. com/ world/ asia- paci fic/ pakis tan- discu ssing- expan sion- cpec- afgha nistan- ambas sador- 2021- 09- 27/. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Grossman, Derek. 2021. China and Pakistan see eye to eye on the Taliban—Almost. https:// www. rand. org/ blog/ 2021/ 09/ china- and- pakis tan- see- eye- to- eye- on- the- talib an- almost. html. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Guterres, António. 2018. Central Asia, Afghanistan possess potential to become symbols of dialogue, peace, Secretary- General Tells Security Council Debate on building regional partnerships. https:// www. un. org/ press/ en/ 2018/ sgsm1 8859. doc. htm. Accessed 20 Dec 2021. Heathershaw, John., and Nick Megoran. 2011. Contesting danger: A new agenda for policy and scholarship on Central Asia. International Aairs ff 87 (3): 589–612. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1111/j. 1468- 2346. 2011. 00992.x. Honig, Steven. 2020. Who pays? Central Asia and China’s debt dilemma. In Foreign Brief. https:// www. forei gnbri ef. com/ former- soviet- union/ who- pays- centr al- asia- and- chinas- debt- dilem ma/. Accessed 27 Dec 2021. Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. 2021. IPC acute food insecurity analysis September 2021 - March 2022: Afghanistan. October. https:// www. ipcin fo. org/ filea dmin/ user_ upload/ ipcin fo/ docs/ IPC_ Afgha nistan_ Acute FoodI nsec_ 2021O ct202 2Mar_ report. pdf. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. IRIN News. 2001. IRIN focus on Uyghur community caught in “political games”. https:// www. thene whuma nitar ian. org/ fr/ node/ 184094. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Israeli Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center. 2014. Foreign fighters from various countries and regions in Asia, fighting against the Syrian regime, most of them in organizations affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the global jihad. http:// www. terro rism- info. org. il/ en/ artic le/ 20639. Accessed 14 Mar 2017. Jiang, Jon Yuan. 2021a. China’s education diplomacy in Central Asia. https:// www. lowyi nstit ute. org/ the- inter preter/ china- s- educa tion- diplo macy- centr al- asia. Accessed 24 Dec 2021. Jiang, Yuan. 2021b. Is Russia starting to sour on China?. https:// thedi plomat. com/ 2021/ 10/ is- russia- start ing- to- sour- on- china/. Accessed 24 Dec 2021. Kashgarian, Asim. 2021. How Uyghurs, Taliban view each other — and why it matters. https:// www. voane ws. com/a/ how- uyghu rs- talib an- view- each- other- and- why- it- matte rs-/ 62432 41. html. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Korybko, Andrew. 2019. China, Pakistan can help Afghanistan, Tajikistan thwart terrorism. https:// news. cgtn. com/ news/ 2019- 11- 10/ China- Pakis tan- can- help- Afgha nistan- Tajik istan- thwart- terro rism- Lu3M5 ls1sA/ index. html. Accessed 20 Dec 2021. Kuaibao, X. 2012. Zhongshiyou Afuhan Kantan Zao Qian Junfa Weixie(CNPC’s exploration in Afghanistan is threatened by former warlords). https:// www. china 5e. com/ news/ news- 228167- 1. html. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Kumakura, Jun. 2021. China’s influence in Central Asia: Sinophobia and the wave of anti-China protests. In China’s Influ- ence and the Center-Periphery Tug of War in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Indo-Pacific, eds. B.C.H. Fong, J. Wu, and A.J. Nathan, 296–309. London, New York: Routledge. https:// www. routl edge. com/ Chinas- Influ ence- and- the- Center- perip hery- Tug- of- War- in- Hong- Kong- Taiwan/ Fong- Wu- Nathan/ p/ book/ 97803 67533 564. Accessed 21 Dec 2021. Landale, James. 2021. Afghanistan: What rise of Taliban means for Pakistan. BBC News, September 3. https:// www. bbc. com/ news/ world- asia- 58443 839. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. Landay, Jonathan. 2021. Profits and poppy: Afghanistan’s illegal drug trade a boon for Taliban. Reuters, August 16. https:// www. reute rs. com/ world/ asia- paci fic/ profi ts- poppy- afgha nista ns- illeg al- drug- trade- boon- talib an- 2021- 08- 16/. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Lee, Jones, and Hameiri Shahar. 2020. Debunking the myth of ‘Debt-trap Diplomacy’. https:// www. chath amhou se. org/ 2020/ 08/ debun king- myth- debt- trap- diplo macy/ summa ry. Accessed 24 Nov 2021. Lehmann, Daniel. 2021. The state of the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Asia. https:// www. caspi anpol icy. org/ the- state- of- the- covid- 19- pande mic- in- centr al- asia/. Accessed 4 Oct 2021. Lemon, Edward. 2018. Assessing the terrorist threat in and from Central Asia. In Voices On Cental Asia. https:// voice sonce ntral asia. org/ asses sing- the- terro rist- threat- in- and- from- centr al- asia/. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Lo, Bobo. 2008. Axis of convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the new geopolitics. In Chatham House: Brookings Institution Press. https:// doi. org/ 10. 7864/j. ctt6w phdn. Accessed 20 Dec 2021. Lukin, Alexander. 2021. Have we passed the peak of Sino-Russian rapprochement? The Washington Quarterly 44 (3): 155–173. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 01636 60X. 2021. 19709 04 (Routledge). Mallinson, Kate. 2021. Afghanistan creates tricky new reality for Central Asia. https:// www. chath amhou se. org/ 2021/ 08/ afgha nistan- creat es- tricky- new- reali ty- centr al- asia. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Mangi, Faseeh, Khalid Qayum, and Ismail Dilawar. 2021. Taliban victory in Afghanistan fuels terror attacks in Pakistan. Bloomberg.com, September 28. https:// www. bloom berg. com/ news/ artic les/ 2021- 09- 28/ talib an- victo ry- in- afgha nistan- fuels- terror- attac ks- in- pakis tan. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. McKernan, Bethan. 2020. Islamic State prisoners escape from Syrian jail after militants riot. http:// www. thegu ardian. com/ world/ 2020/ mar/ 30/ islam ic- state- priso ners- escape- from- syrian- jail- after- milit ants- riot. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Moret, Erica. 2021. The role of sanctions in Afghanistan’s Humanitarian crisis. In IPI Global Observatory. https:// thegl obalo bserv atory. org/ 2021/ 10/ the- role- of- sanct ions- in- afgha nista ns- human itari an- crisis/. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. Mufti, Mariam. 2012. Religion and militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan: A literature review. Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies. https:// csis- websi te- prod. s3. amazo naws. com/ s3fs- public/ legacy_ files/ files/ publi cation/ 120628_ Mufti_ Relig ionMi litan cy_ Web. pdf. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 15 of 16 O’Reilly, Brendan. 2015. China is winning the new Great Game in Central Asia. https:// www. gisre ports online. com/ china- is- winni ng- the- new- great- game- in- centr al- asia,polit ics,1782. html. Accessed 4 Oct 2021. OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2008. 2018. China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the global trade, investment and finance landscape. https:// www. oecd- ilibr ary. org/ finan ce- and- inves tment/ oecd- busin ess- and- finan ce- outlo ok- 2018/ the- belt- and- road- initi ative- in- the- global- trade- inves tment- and- finan ce- lands cape_ bus_ fin_ out- 2018-6- en. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Peyrouse, Sébastien. 2016. Discussing China: Sinophilia and Sinophobia in Central Asia. Journal of Eurasian Studies 7 (1): 14–23. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1016/j. euras. 2015. 10. 003 (SAGE Publications Ltd). Piekos, William, and Elizabeth C. Economy. 2015. The risks and rewards of SCO expansion. https:// www. cfr. org/ expert- brief/ risks- and- rewar ds- sco- expan sion. Accessed 12 Dec 2017. Putz, Catherine. 2021. Vaccine diplomacy in Central Asia: Russia vs. China? https:// thedi plomat. com/ 2021/ 03/ vacci ne- diplo macy- in- centr al- asia- russia- vs- china/. Accessed 27 Dec 2021. Rehman, Zia Ur. 2020. China pushes Pakistan to open trade routes with Afghanistan. https:// asia. nikkei. com/ Spotl ight/ Belt- and- Road/ China- pushes- Pakis tan- to- open- trade- routes- with- Afgha nistan. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. Reuters. 2019. Dozens protest against Chinese influence in Kazakhstan. Reuters, September 4. https:// www. reute rs. com/ artic le/ us- kazak hstan- china- prote sts/ dozens- prote st- again st- chine se- influ ence- in- kazak hstan- idUSK CN1VP 1B0. Accessed 11 Mar 2020. Reuters. 2021a. Factbox: What are Afghanistan’s untapped minerals and resources? Reuters, August 19. https:// www. reute rs. com/ world/ asia- paci fic/ what- are- afgha nista ns- untap ped- miner als- resou rces- 2021- 08- 19/. Accessed 28 Dec Reuters. 2021b. Pakistan Taliban demand prisoner release as condition for talks - sources. Reuters, November 6. https:// www. reute rs. com/ world/ asia- paci fic/ pakis tan- talib an- demand- priso ner- relea se- condi tion- talks- sourc es- 2021- 11- 06/. Accessed 29 Dec 2021. Rolland, Nadège. 2019. A China-Russia Condominium over Eurasia. Survival 61 (1): 7–22. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 00396 338. 2019. 15680 43 (Routledge). Rosenblatt, Nate. 2016. All Jihad is local: what ISIS’ files tell us about its fighters. International Security Program, 20 July. New America Foundation. https:// www. newam erica. org/ inter natio nal- secur ity/ policy- papers/ all- jihad- is- local/. Accessed 18 Oct 2019. Rymbetov, Serik. 2021. Anti-China sentiments grows in Kazakhstan as economic cooperation stalls. https:// james town. org/ progr am/ anti- china- senti ments- grows- in- kazak hstan- as- econo mic- coope ration- stalls/. Accessed 4 Oct 2021. Sahakyan, Mher D. 2021. Russia’s greater Eurasian partnership strategy: Aims and prospects. https:// www. asiag lobal online. hku. hk/ russi as- great er- euras ian- partn ership- strat egy- aims- and- prosp ects. Accessed 27 Dec 2021. Sayed, Abdul. 2021. The Evolution and future of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. https:// carne gieen dowme nt. org/ 2021/ 12/ 21/ evolu tion- and- future- of- tehrik- e- talib an- pakis tan- pub- 86051. Accessed 29 Dec 2021. Select Committee on International Relations and Defence, The UK and Afghanistan: 2nd Report of Session 2019-21. https:// commi ttees. parli ament. uk/ publi catio ns/ 4185/ docum ents/ 43162/ defau lt/. Accessed 25 Jul 2022. Shachtman Noah. 2018. Open Source Tools Turn WikiLeaks Into Illustrated Afghan Meltdown (Updated). Wired, Septem- ber 8. https:// www. wired. com/ 2010/ 08/ open- source- wikil eaked- docs- illus trated- afghan- meltd own/. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Shakhanova, Gaziza, and Jeremy Garlick. 2020. The Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union: Explor- ing the “Greater Eurasian Partnership”. https:// click. endno te. com/ viewer? doi= 10. 1177% 2F186 81026 20911 666& token= WzMyM TMwOD IsIjE wLjEx NzcvM Tg2OD EwMjY yMDkx MTY2N iJd. XlN6D 2J2B6 aBbEb UXGxL LKjI- Rg. Accessed 20 Dec 2021. Silver, Laura, Kat Devlin, and Christine Huang. 2020. Unfavorable views of China reach historic highs in many countries. In Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. https:// www. pewre search. org/ global/ 2020/ 10/ 06/ unfav orable- views- of- china- reach- histo ric- highs- in- many- count ries/. Accessed 4 Oct 2021. Small, Andrews. 2017. What’s Behind China’s Growing Security Presence in Afghanistan? https:// www. world polit icsre view. com/ artic les/ 21590/ what-s- behind- china-s- growi ng- secur ity- prese nce- in- afgha nistan. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. South Asia Monitor. 2020. China asks Pakistan to open five key borders with Afghanistan. https:// www. south asiam onitor. org/ index. php/ china- watch/ china- asks- pakis tan- open- five- key- borde rs- afgha nistan. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. 2016a. Afghanistan’s road infrastructure: Sustainment challenges and lack of repairs put U.S. Investment at Risk. USA: SAGE. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. 2016b. Quarterly report to the United States Congress. https:// www. sigar. mil/ pdf/ quart erlyr eports/ 2016- 10- 30qr. pdf. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Stronski, Paul, and Nicole Ng. 2018. Cooperation and competition: Russia and China in Central Asia, the Russian Far East, and the Arctic. https:// carne gieen dowme nt. org/ 2018/ 02/ 28/ coope ration- and- compe tition- russia- and- china- in- centr al- asia- russi an- far- east- and- arctic- pub- 75673. Accessed 29 Sept 2021. The SecDev Group. 2018. Violent Extremism in Central Asia 2018: A preliminary survey of groups, digital dimensions and state responses. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. https:// inter news. org/ wp- conte nt/ uploa ds/ legacy/ 2019- 07/ Viole nt_ extre mism_ Centr alAsia_ Eng- 2018. pdf. Accessed 25 Jul 2022. Tolonews. 2013. Amu Darya Basin Oil Extraction Operation Halted. https:// tolon ews. com/ busin ess/ amu- darya- basin- oil- extra ction- opera tion- halted. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Trilling, David. 2020. Poll shows Uzbeks, like neighbors, growing leery of Chinese investments | Eurasianet. https:// euras ianet. org/ poll- shows- uzbeks- like- neigh bors- growi ng- leery- of- chine se- inves tments. Accessed 21 Dec 2021. Tsikhay, Aliya. 2021. China and geoeconomic dynamics in Central Asia: Balancing global strategies, local interests and multiple partners. Geoeconomics Series, October. Finnish Institute of International Affairs. https:// www. tepsa. eu/ china- and- geoec onomic- dynam ics- in- centr al- asia- balan cing- global- strat egies- local- inter ests- and- multi ple- partn ers- aliya- tsikh ay- fiia- finla nd/. Accessed 21 Dec 2021. Tskhay, Aliya, and Costa Buranelli Filippo. 2020. Accommodating Revisionism through Balancing Regionalism: The case of Central Asia. Europe-Asia Stud 72 (6): 1033–1052. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 09668 136. 2020. 17791 84 (Routledge). Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 16 of 16 Turner, Susan. 2011. China and Russia After the Russian-Georgian War. Comparative Strategy 30 (1): 50–59. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 01495 933. 2011. 545687 (Routledge). Umarov, Temur. 2021. Why Russia sees little threat in China’s growing involvement in Tajikistan. https:// carne giemo scow. org/ comme ntary/ 86103. Accessed 20 Mar 2022. United Nations Security Council. 2020. Twenty-fifth report of the analytical support and sanctions monitoring team submitted pursuant to resolution 2368 (2017) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities. https:// undocs. org/ en/S/ 2020/ 53. Accessed 19 Aug 2020. United Nations Security Council. 2021a. Afghanistan: Vote on 1988 Sanctions Resolution*. https:// www. secur ityco uncil report. org/ whats inblue/ 2021/ 12/ afgha nistan- vote- on- 1988- sanct ions- exemp tion- resol ution. php. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. United Nations Security Council. 2021b. S/2021b/486. https:// www. ecoi. net/ en/ file/ local/ 20534 87/S_ 2021_ 486_E. pdf . Accessed 25 Jul 2022. USAID. 2021. The United States Announces Nearly $64 Million in Additional Humanitarian Assistance for Afghanistan | Press Release | U.S. Agency for International Development. https:// www. usaid. gov/ news- infor mation/ press- relea ses/ sep- 13- 2021- united- states- nearly- 64- milli on- addit ional- human itari an- assis tance- afgha nistan. Accessed 5 Oct Watts, Clint. 2016. Beyond Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State’s HR Files illuminate dangerous trends. 1 June. Foreign Policy Research Institue. https:// waron thero cks. com/ 2016/ 06/ beyond- syria- and- iraq- the- islam ic- states- hr- files- illum inate- dange rous- trends/. Accessed 25 Oct 2017. Weitz, Richard. 2018. Assessing the Collective Security Treaty Organization: Capabilities and vulnerabilities. In Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College. http:// www. jstor. org/ stable/ resre p20082. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Wigell, Mikael. 2016. Conceptualizing regional powers’ geoeconomic strategies: Neo-imperialism, neo-mercantil- ism, hegemony, and liberal institutionalism. Asia Europe Journal 14 (2): 135–151. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1007/ s10308- 015- 0442-x. Wigton-Jones, Evan. 2021. The unintended harms of infrastructure: Opium and road construction in Afghanistan. Journal of Comparative Economics 49 (2): 405–424. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1016/j. jce. 2020. 10. 002. Wishnick, Elizabeth. 2009. Russia, China, and the United States in Central Asia: Prospects for Great Power Competition and Cooperation in the Shadow of the Georgian Crisis. In Strategic Studies Institute. Xi, J. 2013. Xi Jinping Zai Hasakesitan Zhaerbayefu Daxue De Yanjiang (Xi Jinping’s speech at the Nazarbayev University). http:// www. gov. cn/ ldhd/ 2013- 09/ 08/ conte nt_ 24835 65. htm. Accessed 24 Dec 2021. Xie, Jun, and Daye Chu. 2021. Extension of CPEC into Afghanistan to boost local exports, journey of peace: analysts. https:// www. globa ltimes. cn/ page/ 202107/ 12285 18. shtml. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Yau, Niva. 2021. China polishes its image in Central Asia through the soft power of language. https:// www. opend emocr acy. net/ en/ odr/ china- centr al- asia- soft- power- langu age/. Accessed 24 Dec 2021. Yuan, Jingdong. 2010. China’s role in establishing and building the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Journal of Contemporary China 19 (67): 855–869. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 10670 564. 2010. 508587. Zenn, Jacob. 2017. Central Asian Militants’ Shifting Loyalties in Syria: The Case of The Turkistan Islamic Party. https:// www. cacia nalyst. org/ publi catio ns/ analy tical- artic les/ item/ 13438- centr al- asian- milit ants’- shift ing- loyal ties- in- syria- the- case- of- the- turki stan- islam ic- party. html. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Zenn, Jacob. 2018. The Turkistan Islamic Party in Double-Exile: Geographic and Organizational Divisions in Uighur Jihad- ism. Terrorism Monitor 16(17). https:// james town. org/ progr am/ the- turki stan- islam ic- party- in- double- exile- geogr aphic- and- organ izati onal- divis ions- in- uighur- jihad ism/. Accessed 7 Jan 2020. Zhang, Min, and Shivani Singh. 2021. UPDATE 1-China’s Jiangxi Copper to develop Afghanistan copper mine when situ- ation allows. Reuters, September 13. https:// www. reute rs. com/ artic le/ afgha nistan- confl ict- jiang xi- copper- idUSL 1N2QF 07O. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Zhang, Dan, and Kunyi Yang. 2021. Central Asian countries aim to attract more investment from China. https:// www. globa ltimes. cn/ page/ 202106/ 12275 11. shtml. Accessed 29 Sept 2021. Zhang, Chi. 2019. The double track system of Terrorism Proscription in China. Terrorism and Political Violence,. Informa UK Limited: 1–22.https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 09546 553. 2018. 15495 47. Zhang, Rachel. 2021. Wang calls for lifting of sanctions on Afghanistan. https:// advan ce. lexis. com/ docum ent/? pdmfid= 15193 60& crid= f53e9 7f4- 5467- 404e- b609- d9572 b03d1 e5& pddoc fullp ath=% 2Fsha red% 2Fdoc ument% 2Fnews% 2Furn% 3Acon tentI tem% 3A63NX- 2VD1- JC8V- 1194- 00000- 00& pdcon tentc ompon entid= 11314 & pdtea serkey= sr0& pditab= allpo ds& ecomp= xbxnk & earg= sr0& prid= ee52e 15e- 4b86- 42c5- 885d- a9f08 1f517 f4. Accessed 23 Dec Zogg, Benno. 2019. Cooperation, co-existence or clash? China and Russia’s ambitions in Central Asia. https:// thedi plomat. com/ 2019/ 11/ coope ration- co- exist ence- or- clash- china- and- russi as- ambit ions- in- centr al- asia/. Accessed 24 Dec http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Asian Review of Political Economy Springer Journals

China’s emergence and development challenges that China faces in Central Asia

Zhang, Chi
Asian Review of Political Economy , Volume 1 (1) – Dec 28, 2022
Download PDF
16 pages

Loading next page...
 
/lp/springer-journals/china-s-emergence-and-development-challenges-that-china-faces-in-u6KK7SuQo2

References (96)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2022
eISSN
2731-5835
DOI
10.1007/s44216-022-00005-7
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

cz38@st-andrews.ac.uk Development in Central Asia faces intensifying headwinds in various aspects. Terrorism School of International Relations, University of St Andrews, St and political instability have been the primary sources of concern for this chessboard Andrews, UK of rivaling great powers. The US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan left a power vacuum, and the region’s future is further clouded by elevated uncertainty. The so-called ‘new Cold War’ discourse is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy that contextualizes regional geopolitical maneuverings. These developments present a pressing need to evaluate development challenges in Central Asia in the context of China’s rising influence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative and other regional frameworks, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and China Pakistan Economic Corridor. This paper seeks to examine the shifting geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape in Central Asia in the context of global ideological confrontations and the regional Great Game between China and Russia. Drawing on think tank reports, English-language media reports, and scholarly works, it argues that China’s investment and development strategy in Central Asia can be improved by giving geopolitical and geoeconomic fac- tors full consideration. The changing political dynamics in the region have significant implications for China’s engagement with Central Asian countries, its broader Belt and Road Initiative extending through Central Asia to Europe, and development challenges that transcend the dualistic categorization of development and security. Keywords: Central Asia, Sino-Russian relations, Terrorism, Belt and Road Initiative, Security cooperation Introduction Development in Central Asia faces intensifying headwinds in various aspects. Ter- rorism and political instability have been the primary sources of concern for this chessboard of rivaling great powers. The ongoing pandemic compounded transborder issues, as the lack of vaccines is also posing public health challenges to neighboring regions (Lehmann, 2021). Furthermore, the US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan left a power vacuum, and the region’s future is further clouded by elevated uncertainty. The so-called ‘new Cold War’ discourse is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy that con - textualizes the geopolitical maneuverings in the region. Speculation has spread inter- nationally about China’s willingness and capability to further boost its presence in Central Asia’s development and security. These developments present a pressing need © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the mate- rial. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http:// creat iveco mmons. org/ licen ses/ by/4. 0/. Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 2 of 16 to evaluate development challenges in Central Asia in the context of China’s rising influence in the region. Central Asia is strategically important to China for a few reasons. Economically, con- nected to the region through the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (hereinafter Xinjiang), China has increased its investment in post-Soviet Central Asia more than 100-fold since 1991 (O’Reilly, 2015). Geographically, the borders that China shares with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stretch over 3,300  km, offering great opportunity as well as nontraditional security challenges, such as terrorism, drug traf- ficking and illegal migration (Yuan, 2010). This resource-rich region is also a strate - gically important means for China to diversify its sources of energy supplies, which previously relied primarily on the Middle East and the Gulf (Yuan, 2010; Zogg, 2019). Over the past decade, China’s ‘Going Out’ strategy has been further materialized by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in which ‘Central Asia is an important and danger- ous crossroads for China’s expanding global influence’ (O’Reilly, 2015). The BRI is not only a foreign policy project, and China’s investment in infrastructure abroad could also ‘help transportation of resources and goods between China and Central Asia, helping to develop China’s interior’ (O’Reilly, 2015). China’s emergence in Central Asia has drastically changed the power dynamics in the region. Through the BRI, China will contribute to the $26 trillion needed for infrastruc - ture investment in Asia until 2030 (Asian Development Bank, 2017), which could also help solve China’s problem of excess capacity (OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2018, 2018). However, China’s investment strategy in Central Asia has recently shifted from major infrastructure projects to manufacturing, and the diversification of economic portfolios fits with Central Asian countries’ expectations (Stronski and Ng, 2018: 11). Against this backdrop, it is imperative to understand new challenges and opportunities arising from shifting political and economic dynamics in the region. This paper seeks to examine Central Asia’s shifting geopolitical landscape in the context of global ideological confrontations and the regional Great Game between Russia and China. Development challenges will be analyzed in the context of China’s engagement with Central Asia. This focus limits the scope of this paper to four topics – Sino-Russian competition, which sets the scene for the rivalry between these great powers; Central Asia’s reception of China’s influence, which offers a less-explored but much-needed perspective on China’s expand - ing power; instability in Afghanistan after the US’s withdrawal, which addresses the most recent major change in Central Asia’s geopolitical landscape; and the threat of terrorism, which is often considered China’s greatest concern without further scrutiny. By tracing the recent developments in the region, this paper qualitatively examines the challenges for development in Central Asia. The data, collected from think tank reports, English-language media reports, and scholarly works, are analyzed through a geoeconomic framework, which facilitates a better understanding of the relationship between the wider geopolitical dynamics and China’s ‘geostrategic use of economic power’ (Wigell, 2016: 137) among BRI countries in Central Asia. By doing so, this paper seeks to identify risk factors arising from the shifting great power rivalry and local con- ditions in the region. The changing political dynamics in the region have significant implications for Chi - na’s future engagement with Central Asian countries, its broader BRI extending through Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 3 of 16 Central Asia to Europe, and development challenges that transcend the dualistic catego- rization of development and security (Allouche and Lind, 2013). The remainder of this paper will proceed as follows. The second section will contex - tualize the discussion with a brief overview of Sino-Russian relations, focusing on the countries’ shared interests, competition, and friction in various realms. The third section will complement the Russia-centered discussion by focusing on Central Asian states’ reception of China’s expanding influence in the region. The fourth section will focus on the instability in Afghanistan after the US’s chaotic withdrawal in 2021 and its implica- tions for regional security. The fifth section will explore the threats posed by terrorism and extremism in the region. Sino‑Russian competition This section provides a brief overview of the regional Great Game between Russia and China to contextualize the discussion of China’s emergence in Central Asia. Given the drastic change in the geopolitical landscape, the roles of the two great powers cannot be underestimated. Their relations are key to stability in Central Asia. Confronted with talk of a ‘new Cold War’, Russia and China have been pushed into each other’s arms as the US considers both as sources of security threats, and thus, they have more shared interests than potential areas of conflict when the US remains the top rival for both countries. Russia and China have the same concerns about ‘color revolutions’ perpetuated by the US-led international system (Stronski and Ng, 2018; Yuan, 2010), which have overthrown a number of post-Soviet governments (Piekos and Economy, 2015). In particular, the ‘color revolutions’ in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan and the 2005 Andijan incident in Uzbeki- stan pushed Russia further into the arms of the SCO and prompted it to engage more actively in counterterrorism cooperation in the region (Yuan, 2010). In other words, both countries are concerned about ‘any American strategic projection into resource- rich areas on their borders’ (O’Reilly, 2015). As the US ‘became more engaged actively in East Asia, and began lobbying for NATO expansions into Georgia and Ukraine’, Russia and China became more strategically aligned (Asiryan and He, 2020). This tendency has become clearer since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite the shared interests, observers often view Sino-Russian relations as temporary and fragile – a so-called ‘axis of convenience’ (Lo, 2008). Indeed, as Sino-Russian rela- tions are driven more by interests rather than identity, the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan represents a significant shift in the political dynamics in the region. In this context, Russia has not been very enthusiastic about China’s presence in the region. First, while the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is led by both China and Russia, China has been active in carrying out military exercises within this frame- work, making it a potential competitor of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Nevertheless, although incorporating ‘all of the CSTO’s Central Asian members plus Russia, China, India and Pakistan’, SCO does not challenge Russia’s dominance in terms of military defense in the region (Weitz, 2018: 74). There are some concerns over an alleged military base in Tajikistan funded and built by China (Eurasianet, 2020; Y Jiang, 2021a, b; Zogg, 2019). It is said that the base, agreed upon between Tajikistan’s Interior Ministry and China’s Public Security Ministry, with $10 million from China, will focus on ‘counterterrorism amid arising concerns over Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 4 of 16 instability in neighboring Afghanistan’ (Devonshire-Ellis, 2021). However, such reports have been dismissed by both China and Tajikistan (ANI, 2021). China’s defense policy provides that China will not establish any military base abroad, and the one in Djibouti is framed as a ‘logistics’ base. Therefore, although there may be military cooperation between China and Tajikistan, it is likely to be conducted within the existing regional frameworks. Publicly establishing a military base would be an open violation of China’s own defense policy, which would be a sign of a major shift in China’s approach to and intended level of influence in Central Asia. Nevertheless, this exam - ple indicates that although China is constrained by its noninterventionism in regard to regional military cooperation, concerns exist in the region regarding its deepening military engagement. China’s limited scope for military cooperation with Central Asia is not considered a threat to Russia, which has a close working relationship with Tajik- istan within the CSTO (Umarov, 2021). Furthermore, Russia does not feel threatened, as Beijing does not seek to diminish Russian influence – Beijing’s military activities in the region are directed at securing its own security interests (Umarov, 2021). Second, power asymmetry in the region is exacerbated by economic asymmetry. China has become increasingly influential in Central Asia, with its economy eight times the size of Russia’s (Zogg, 2019). ‘As the SCO has achieved significant results in its cam - paign to crush terrorists’ movements in Central Asia’, according to Wang Yiwei, direc- tor of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University, ‘economic cooperation has inevitably been put on the agenda of the organization’ (Zhang and Yang, 2021). The SCO’s role in facilitating economic development is corroborated by its Secretary- General, Vladimir Imamovich Norov: ‘investment cooperation has become a significant agenda item within the SCO’ (Zhang and Yang, 2021). The Russia-led Eurasian Eco - nomic Union (EAEU) has been overshadowed by China’s BRI (Stronski and Ng, 2018; Weitz, 2018; Zogg, 2019). The Greater Eurasian Partnership, proposed by Putin in 2016, seeks to deepen Russia’s economic partnership across Eurasia and further consolidate Russia’s reach in the far east (Sahakyan, 2021). Interviews with Russian and Kazakh elites indicate skepticism toward Russia’s ‘Greater Eurasian Partnership’ and more ‘divergent opinions’, including positive views of and support for the BRI (Shakhanova and Garlick, 2020: 49). As China’s investment soars in Central Asia, power asymmetry between Russia and China is likely to feed the former’s insecurity toward the latter (Rolland, 2019: 15). China is a major practitioner of geoeconomics, and its economic power has given it leverage in inducing desired behavior from Central Asian countries. Holding the ‘upper hand in the relationship’, China now has the capability to ‘grow at the expense of Russia’, although it may decide not to do so (Stronski and Ng, 2018). This power asymmetry is likely to con - tinue, if not be made worse, by sanctions placed on Russia for its war against Ukraine, although China’s growth is also slowed by its zero-COVID policies. This shifting power asymmetry poses a challenge no less than the US’ geopoliti - cal maneuvering in the region. As Alexander Lukin (2021: 170) notes, ‘[a]ny possible changes in US policy will probably prove less of a deterrent to further Russian-Chinese rapprochement than will Russian concerns over China’s growing assertiveness’. As American influence dwindles in the region, the geopolitical rivalry between the two powers is potentially destabilizing. If they decide to ‘back different factions to project Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 5 of 16 their regional power’, this will create opportunities for terrorists to spread extremist ide- ology and violence in the common backyard of Russia and China (O’Reilly, 2015). Furthermore, the divergence of Chinese and Russian interests, especially regarding energy and economic integration in Central Asia, could manifest in incidents such as the Georgian crisis (Turner, 2011; Wishnick, 2009). Russia’s pursuit of power is considered at odds with China’s expanding influence in the energy arena (Freeman, 2018). ‘In 2009, the completion of pipelines to China broke the Russian monopoly on energy outlets for the region’ (Zogg, 2019). While China’s interest-based ‘new regionalism’ has limitations, as discussed above, it is more flexible than the traditional identity-based regionalism, exemplified by the EU (Chung, 2004: 993). This means that linguistic and cultural barriers are less of a problem for the tripartite relationship among China, Russia and Central Asia than they would have been in the EU. While examining key players, Russia and China, and the Great Game narrative is help- ful in sketching out the ‘big picture’, it is insufficient to capture the complexity of the geo - political landscape because it gives little agency to the Central Asian states (Asiryan and He, 2020). To complement the above analysis, the following section will focus on Central Asia’s reception of China’s expanding influence in the region. Central Asia’s reception of China’s influence This section focuses on how Central Asian countries have responded to Russian and Chinese influence. The agency of Central Asian countries has been overshadowed by discussions of rivalries between major powers. The attitudes of Central Asian countries are important for China to fine-tune its development strategy in the region. China’s expanding influence in the region is gradually changing locals’ perception of China. Unfavorable views of China have long existed in the region. Before the 1980s, the Soviet propaganda apparatus spread ‘extremely negative clichés about China’ (Peyrouse, 2016: 14). Since the outbreak of COVID-19, conspiracy theories regarding the origin of the virus have exacerbated anti-China racism across the globe. Already a geopoliti- cal battlefield, postpandemic Central Asia has become an arena for further Sino-Russian rivalry in terms of ‘vaccine diplomacy’ (Putz, 2021). While Central Asian countries enjoy close ties with Russia as former Soviet republics, they have also countered Russia’s aggressive foreign policy through regional organiza- tions and platforms that help diversify their ties to contain Russia’s rising influence in the region (Tskhay and Costa Buranelli, 2020: 1034). With China’s increasingly dominant presence in Central Asia, these countries will continue using regional frameworks for hedging purposes to balance China’s emergence. The current global anti-China sentiment poses further challenges to China establish - ing itself as a responsible regional power in Central Asia. China’s growing economic power and global influence can be viewed as threats when a record high number of peo - ple hold unfavorable views of the country (Silver et  al., 2020). Although Central Asian governments generally maintain good relations with the Chinese government, public opinion places constraints on these governments. For example, Kazakhstan saw a series of protests against a planned land reform in 2016 and Sinophobic protests against Chi- nese companies (Reuters, 2019). Similarly, survey data from the Central Asia Barometer Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 6 of 16 indicate increasing opposition in Uzbekistan to Chinese energy and infrastructure devel- opment in the region (Trilling, 2020). Furthermore, although the myth of ‘debt trap diplomacy’ has been debunked (Lee and Shahar, 2020), fear remains that the BRI’s lending mechanism will increase Tajikistan’s risk of debt distress (Chen, 2018) and debt dependence more generally in Central Asia (Tsikhay, 2021). The economic reliance developed along with the BRI does not help the countries deal with the structural problems facing their economies. Debt dependency is a concern not only for receiving states but also for China. The COVID-19 pandemic has put pressure on Central Asian countries, which already have low sovereign credit rat- ings, to pay off Chinese debts (Honig, 2020). Another factor that may impact Central Asia’s reception of China is the Russian media. Considering the impact of Russian media on Central Asia, their attitudes toward China also present a challenge to China’s image in the region. Kumakura (2021: 305) notes a sign of change in the Russian media, which have started swaying public opinion on Chi- na’s presence in Central Asia. This represents the shift of attitudes within Russia, where as Peyrouse observed, Sinophile circles were forming (Peyrouse, 2016: 18). China’s growing economic power in the region has increased demand to learn the Chi- nese language. The trend is seen in both schools and private education companies. For example, Chinese is becoming more popular than Russian in Tajik schools (Altynbayev, 2021). Nurzhan Baitemirov, founder of East‒West Education Group, is shifting his focus from English to Chinese (Farchy, 2016). Under Xi, China has invested heavily, within the SCO framework, in education diplomacy. Early in 2013, Xi visited Nazarbayev Univer- sity, offering 30,000 scholarships and inviting 10,000 teachers and students of the Confu - cius Institute to visit China (Xi, 2013). Since then, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of students from Central Asian countries receiving Chinese government schol- arships (JY Jiang, 2021a, b). There have been some successes in cultivating positive views toward China among Central Asian students (Chen and Jiménez-Tovar, 2017; Yau, 2021). The efforts to promote education diplomacy notwithstanding, Chinese language learning presents formidable challenges, as it is from a different language family than the Turkic and Slavic language families dominant in the region, and many students only complete the beginner level (Kumakura, 2021: 304). This is compounded by a perceived ‘civilizational difference’ and ‘impassable cultural barrier’ between Central Asia and China (Peyrouse, 2016: 22). While China’s ‘new regionalism’ in Central Asia is interest-based, identity factors still play a role. For example, the friendship sustained by investment was tainted by dem- onstrators at the Chinese consulate in Almaty, who demanded the release of their rel- atives allegedly detained in Xinjiang (Rymbetov, 2021). Incidents such as this have compounded the existing animosity against China’s growing influence in the field of oil industry (Rymbetov, 2021). Given China’s interest-based engagement with Central Asia, identity-related risks do not pose an immediate challenge to China’s geoeconomic strategy in the region. To date, all the Central Asian countries have supported China’s ethnic policy in Xinjiang. However, in the long run, identity-led distrust may limit China’s influence in economic cooperation. It remains a potential factor that may prevent China from translating its Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 7 of 16 economic power into actual leverage on controversial issues such as its approach to the Uyghur population in Central Asian countries. Instability in Afghanistan and its spillover in Central Asia This section focuses on recent developments in Afghanistan. The situation in Afghani - stan is particularly important after the US withdrew its military presence on 30 August 2021, leaving the Taliban to regain control. As this section will show, the return of the Taliban is a significant factor for Central Asia’s wider geopolitical landscape. Central Asia has already been considered a ‘hotbed for extremism’ due to its economic hardship and repression (Dalton, 2017), although the pervasive view that it poses a dan- ger to the West is largely unfounded (Heathershaw and Megoran, 2011). The ‘discourse of danger’ related to Central Asia contributes to the securitization of the region and jus- tification of the US’s war in Afghanistan (Cooley, 2021: 1991–2021). However, regard - less of the extent of securitization before the US’s withdrawal, the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan resulted in exacerbated chaos, leading to the spillover of the humanitarian crisis, drug economy and terrorism risks. The withdrawal of US troops marked the end of 20 years of US war, which cost thou - sands of lives and trillions of dollars (Associated Press, 2021). As one of the poorest countries and the largest illicit opiate supplier, Afghanistan was already suffering from a grave humanitarian crisis before the situation was aggravated by COVID-19. ‘In 2019 there were more than five million Afghan asylum seekers, refugees and internally dis - placed persons’ (Select Committee on International Relations and Defence, 2021: 4), presenting a grave challenge to the country’s immediate neighbors. Externally, Afghanistan relies heavily on foreign aid, and internally, it relies heavily on opium production. In 2017, opium production was estimated to be ‘worth some $1.4 bil- lion in sales by farmers or roughly 7% of Afghanistan’s GDP’, according to the UN Office of Drugs and Crime (Landay, 2021). As many rural jobs are dependent on poppy cultiva- tion, there are concerns, for example, within the UK (Select Committee on International Relations and Defence, 2021: 5), that humanitarian assistance could unwittingly sustain the narcotics trade. Political instability has also increased the risk of investing in Afghanistan’s natu- ral resources, which are estimated to be worth approximately $1 to $3 trillion (Azad, 2020; Reuters, 2021a). There have been a few Chinese attempts at investing in natural resources. Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd. and Metallurgical Corp of China took over the Mes Aynak copper mine in 2008, but construction has been delayed by instability (Zhang and Singh, 2021). In 2011, the former cabinet of Afghanistan approved a deal to allow the China National Petroleum Corporation to carry out oil exploration and extraction in the Amu Darya Basin over the following 25  years (BBC, 2011). This project was halted by local militia (Xin Kuaibao, 2012) and disagreements over the transportation of oil out of Afghanistan (Tolonews, 2013). These two examples capture the difficulties in investment in Afghanistan’s natural resources. The chaos in Afghanistan has already spilled over into Pakistan. The unguarded 2,570-km border (Landale, 2021) and political and ideological linkages between the two countries make it difficult to separate Islamic militancy between them (Mufti, 2012). Terrorism, on the rise since 2017, culminated in August 2021 with 35 attacks that killed Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 8 of 16 52 (Mangi et  al., 2021). Emboldened by these developments in Afghanistan, militant groups in Pakistan have already been keeping investment away (Mangi et  al., 2021). Attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) surged with the Afghan Taliban’s takeo- ver (Grossman, 2021). The TTP has merged ten militant groups since July 2020, includ - ing ‘three Pakistani affiliates of al-Qaeda’ (Sayed, 2021). Upon its takeover, the Afghan Taliban released hundreds of TTP members to pave the way for full ceasefire negotia - tions (Reuters, 2021b). The renewed security challenges posed by the developments in Afghanistan have increased Central Asian countries’ reliance on regional organizations such as the CSTO and SCO (Mallinson, 2021). As the SCO expanded to include India and Pakistan in 2017, it has given Russia and China greater leverage to address instability in Afghanistan. The inclusion of these two countries will help China and Russia develop multilateral plat- forms that are conducive to a more multipolar world order to counterbalance the US (Stronski and Ng, 2018: 15). In this context, postconflict reconstruction is the precondition for any major invest - ments. China stepped in almost immediately after the US’s withdrawal to provide relief, announcing $31 million worth of emergency aid, including food and water supplies, COVID-19 vaccines and medicine, on 8 September 2021 (CGTN, 2021). A week later, on 13 September, the US announced nearly $64 million of humanitarian assistance (USAID, 2021). The West’s reluctance to provide funds may drive Afghans closer to China and Paki - stan – two countries that responded quickly to its humanitarian crisis (Greenfield, 2021a). In addition to government-to-government aid, China’s involvement in postconflict reconstruction in Afghanistan is likely to be rolled out through regional frameworks. At a meeting of the heads of the SCO, President Xi emphasized the SCO’s role in facilitating a smooth Afghan transition and developing an inclusive political structure (Al Jazeera, 2021). Discussions were underway, even before the US withdrawal (Xie and Chu, 2021), to include Afghanistan in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), under which China has pledged over $60 million for infrastructure projects (Greenfield, 2021b). The extension of the CPEC to Afghanistan was endorsed by Hua Chunying, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: ‘China supports the CPEC’s extension to Afghanistan so that the Afghan people can benefit from the BRI’ (Rehman, 2020). Some scholars have expressed similar views (Xie and Chu, 2021). Among other postconflict reconstruction tasks, a key challenge to any further devel - opment in Afghanistan is the condition of its roads. In the past two decades, the coun- try’s 2,000-mile Ring Road has been repeatedly rebuilt and destroyed by terrorist attacks. The importance of road infrastructure to Afghanistan’s development and governance is captured in a Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) report: ‘if the Kabul to Kandahar highway were to become impassable, the central government would collapse’ (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, 2016b: 39). With $2.8 billion spent by 2016 (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruc- tion, 2016a), Afghanistan’s road infrastructure was crumbling when the Taliban took over (DW, 2021). The US’s approach to building the Ring Road was one of nation building. The Ring Road is designed to facilitate the delivery of public services and humanitarian aid; thus, Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 9 of 16 it was expected to bring legitimacy to the central government and to enable the US and NATO to send troops and supplies to keep the Taliban in check (Ellis, 2018). However, as the US’s attention was diverted to Iraq after 2003, it cut its funding for road construc- tion in Afghanistan. WikiLeaks geospatial attack data show that Taliban attacks esca- lated from 2004 to 2009 and were concentrated along the Ring Road (Shachtman, 2018). The absence of major roads that connect within Afghanistan prevents the transportation of supplies for any other development projects. While the US’s ‘nation-building’ approach did not succeed, road construction must be carried out alongside nation-building efforts. Research on the relationship between opium and road construction demonstrates that ‘where the rule of law is limited and opportunities for legal livelihoods remain scarce, investments in physical infrastructure can inadvertently incentivize illegal economic activity’ (Wigton-Jones, 2021: 405). Afghanistan was already subject to multiple sanctions when the Taliban took over, and the country’s economy was suffering from a severe drought, armed conflict and COVID-19. ‘[I] ts healthcare systems, and wider social fabric are heavily dependent on foreign assistance’ (Moret, 2021). A recent report highlights the unprecedented food crisis in Afghanistan, where ‘nearly 19 million people are highly food insecure due to prolonged drought, conflict and economic collapse’ (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, 2021: 1). With international sanctions in place, the private and not-for-profit sectors may face serious constraints in supply chains and financial exclusion – a phenomenon known as ‘overcompliance’, ‘derisking’ and the ‘chilling effect’ (Moret, 2021). This may exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. As calls for ‘strategic relief of some existing US and UN sanctions’ (Moret, 2021) are being made, there is a window of opportunity for China to engage in political dialog with the Taliban. Indeed, China called for lifting economic sanctions on Afghanistan, which would contribute to its reconstruction (Rachel, 2021). Although the US compromised by proposing humanitarian exceptions to the existing sanction regimes, it remains chal- lenging to reach international consensus on the provision of humanitarian assistance under the 1988 Afghanistan sanctions regime (United Nations Security Council, 2021a). Opponents of the US’s initial proposal of 9  months, such as China and Russia, argued that the exemption that would allow humanitarian assistance should not be subject to a time limit but were willing to accept a 12-month period. Others, including France, Esto- nia, India and the UK, advocated for a shorter time limit of 6  months (United Nations Security Council, 2021a). Terrorist threats The issue of terrorism captures the intertwined nature of security and development, as the ‘root causes’ of terrorism are often considered embedded in the socioeconomic conditions of certain disadvantaged groups or individuals. Although observers often cite the issue of East Turkistan forces as China’s major concern in the region, this issue is conflated with the controversies surrounding deradicalization programs in Xinjiang and is understood, especially in Western media, as an excuse for power abuse. The con - flation of these two issues obscures the actual scale of Uyghur militancy. This section seeks to examine terrorist activities that may cause significant disruption to develop - ment by actors, including the terrorists who target Chinese interests and other local Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 10 of 16 terrorist networks that pose a threat to economic development more generally. For the purpose of this paper, ‘Uyghur militants’ are defined as Uyghur individuals who advo - cate for an independent ‘East Turkistan’ (what the Chinese authorities call the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region) through violent means. While the designation of terrorists according to China’s Anti-Terror Law remains controversial, it is beyond the scope of this paper and discussed elsewhere (see Zhang, 2019). This paper does not assume that Uyghurs, predominantly Sunni Muslims, are more susceptible to radicalization than any other groups. Given that ethnic relations between Uyghurs and Han have suffered from tensions intensified in the Sino-US rivalry, a small number of radicalized Uyghurs found their way to radicalism, joining forces with extremists in Central Asia and the Middle East. Uyghur militants have operated under several names but have been given the label of ‘East Turkistan forces’ by the Chinese authorities. The labeling of all the Uyghur activist groups and individuals as ‘East Turkestan forces’ is misleading for three reasons. First, it obscures the dynamics within the group. Under the mistranslated East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), the Turkic Islamic Party (TIP) can be viewed as a jihadist wing, and the Istanbul-based, Uyghur-led East Turk- istan Education and Solidarity Association (ETESA) can be viewed as an Islamic wing (Zenn, 2018). The latter is not considered a terrorist organization in most countries, which poses challenges to China, making it difficult to facilitate international counter - terrorism cooperation. Second, lumping Uyghur terrorist groups together as ‘East Turkestan forces’ does not help distinguish terrorists from the law-abiding Uyghur diaspora whose support is crucial to the legitimacy of China’s deradicalization programs. According to a UN report, several hundred members of the TIP are located in Badakhshan and Afghani- stan (United Nations Security Council, 2021b: 19). This small group of militants must be differentiated from the 10 million Uyghurs who currently reside in Central Asia (IRIN News, 2001). According to Salih Hudayar, the Uyghur president and founder of the Washington-based East Turkistan National Awakening Movement, although Uyghurs in China and the people of Afghanistan belong to the Hanafi sect of Sunni Muslims, most Uyghurs are liberal and view the Taliban as very extreme (Kashgarian, 2021). It remains difficult for the Chinese authorities to differentiate between violent extremists and local supporters in Central Asia who have family in Xinjiang. Although Central Asian govern- ments are generally cooperative within the SCO framework, it is in the interests of the Chinese government not to alienate the 10 million Uyghurs in Central Asia. Third, terrorists from Xinjiang have been working with local terrorist organizations. Given the support from local terrorist networks to help a small number of Uyghurs flee to Syria, assessing the connections between terrorists from Xinjiang and terrorist net- works in Central Asia is a prerequisite for any development plans in the region. In 2008, the TIP released its first video indicating an ideological affinity with al-Qaeda and loy - alty to the Taliban (Zenn, 2018). In the Syrian civil war, some have shifted loyalty to the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Syria (Zenn, 2017). In 2016, when the Syria Civil War was at its height, terrorists from Xinjiang heightened their presence with a few propa- ganda videos explicitly targeting China, some of which included scenes of child soldiers. Uyghur participants in the Syrian Civil War operated as part of the TIP, also known as ‘Katibat Turkistani’, translated as the ‘Turkistan Brigade’ (Clarke and Kan, 2017). Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 11 of 16 The exact number of Uyghur foreign fighters has been subject to debate, ranging from 300, as estimated by the Chinese authorities, to 5,000, a number given by Syria’s ambas- sador to China (Blanchard, 2017). The actual number of Uyghur foreign fighters likely rose from a few hundred in 2013 to over 3,000 in 2020, based on various sources (Boto- bekov, 2017; Israeli Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center, 2014; Rosenblatt, 2016; United Nations Security Council, 2020; Watts, 2016). As China has become a prominent target for terrorists from Xinjiang, the instability in Central Asia provides an arena for scattered terrorists to regroup and renew their connections with local terrorist networks such as the Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Hizb ut-Tahrir (HuT), Islamic State—Wilayat Khorasan (ISWK) and local Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) (The SecDev Group, 2018). Attacks against Chinese interests in the region, such as the 2016 Chinese embassy bombing in Bishkek, are likely to reoc- cur (Zenn, 2017). Adding to the difficulty of identifying terrorists, it remains unknown how many for - eign terrorist fighters from Central Asian countries were Uyghurs. Central Asian coun - tries have been recognized as one of the major sources of foreign terrorist fighters who travel to conflict zones to engage in terrorist activities. The number of foreign fighters from Central Asia to Syria was between 2,000 and 5,000 (Lemon, 2018). The number of foreign terrorist fighters from areas including Central Asia, Russia, Pakistan and Xin - jiang was between 8,000 and 10,000 in June 2020 (United Nations Security Council, 2021b: 18). The situation has been further complicated by the US’s withdrawal from Syria and COVID-19. The US pullout was accompanied by reports of prison breaks of hundreds of ISIL prisoners (Al Jazeera, 2019). More prison breaks were reported in March as global attention shifted to COVID-19 (McKernan, 2020). It remains unknown whether any ter- rorists from Xinjiang were among these prisoners. China’s high level of control over its borders has thus far helped keep terrorists away from its territory. However, Central Asian countries remain strategically important for China’s domestic security because they are likely to be chosen as a haven and a staging ground to launch further attacks against China (Clarke and Kan, 2017: 11). Some return- ing fighters have already been reported in Afghanistan (Small, 2017). Online violent extremist content permeates Central Asian social media. A 2018 report ‘found 140 Central Asian social media accounts that were actively distributing VE [vio- lent extremism] content to over 324,000 subscribers’ even though content-blocking mechanisms were in place; more effective means such as education and engagement were underdeveloped in the region (The SecDev Group, 2018: 3). As long as China con- tinues to ‘go out’, stability in Central Asia remains a key factor in protecting Chinese overseas interests. On the other hand, Central Asia provides a key multilateral platform for China to carry out counterterrorism activities, even though Afghanistan is not a member of the SCO. Central Asia plays a facilitating role in Afghanistan’s peace and security process (Guterres, 2018). Tajikistan shares a border with Afghanistan that is approximately 1,300  km long, allowing for terrorist infiltration (Weitz, 2018: 8). The ‘Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism in Counter-Terrorism’ was established in 2016 by Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and Tajikistan to facilitate multilateral regional Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 12 of 16 security coordination beyond the SCO (Korybko, 2019). In August 2020, China con- vinced Pakistan to open five key border crossings to allow bilateral trade with Afghani - stan and transit trade of Afghan exports to India (South Asia Monitor, 2020), which also decreased ‘Afghan’s dependence on the Chabahar port in Iran’ (Azad, 2020). Even Chi- na’s military activity ‘near the Tajik-Afghan border has more to do with Afghanistan than Central Asia’ (Asiryan and He, 2020). Conclusion This paper has evaluated the threat posed by geopolitical rivalry, the geoeconomic land - scape, regional instability, and terrorism in Central Asia. These security challenges have great implications and policy relevance for development and for China’s involvement in this region. The discussion of the four interconnected topics has shown that to under - stand China’s emergence and the development challenges that it faces in the region, Chi- na’s engagement with Central Asian countries cannot be severed from the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscapes and the existing security threats that already confront the region. This paper concludes with the following four observations. First, constructive Sino-Russian relations that focus on shared interests are condu- cive to regional security. The regional frameworks led by the two countries may become competitive, for example, CSTO versus SCO and EAEU versus BRI. However, it is in the interests of regional peace that the two countries develop their respective competitive advantages to develop the region together. If the two engage in zero-sum competition, the region will rapidly descend into a battlefield of proxy wars and a source of terrorism and refugees. Second, while China’s education diplomacy is cultivating positive opinions toward China in Central Asia, more needs to be done to address postpandemic anti-China sen- timents that are rooted in the Soviet era. Having been influenced by the Russian lan - guage and culture for decades, people in Central Asia need time to catch up with the shifting power dynamics. Third, Afghanistan, which has recently seen the departure of the US, presents consid - erable challenges to regional security. The Taliban’s former ties to international terrorist organizations cannot be severed completely, as exemplified by the release of TPP prison - ers. Its economy, which is highly dependent on aid and opium production, is in dire need of structural reform before humanitarian aid can truly benefit the people. Infrastructure projects such as roads are crucial to pave the way for peace in landlocked and moun- tainous countries such as Afghanistan. At the same time, building infrastructure without nation building could inadvertently contribute to the illicit drug trade. Fourth, to create conditions for better counterterrorism cooperation, efforts must be made to differentiate terrorists and the 10 million Uyghur people residing in Cen - tral Asia. Further research needs to evaluate the actual capability of Uyghur militants to launch any attacks against China. Such research will also help narrow the overbroad counterterrorism agenda, a subject of much international criticism. Acknowledgements The author is very grateful to the anonymous reviewers and the editors of the journal for their thoughtful and construc- tive feedback and editorial support. Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 13 of 16 Authors’ contributions All authors are involved in theory construction, case analysis and article writing. All author(s) read and approved the final manuscript. Funding British Academy Postdoctoral Fellowship: PF20_100052. Availability of data and materials Not applicable. Declarations Competing interests The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Received: 30 March 2022 Accepted: 5 July 2022 References Allouche, Jeremy, and Jeremy Lind. 2013. Development and security in a changing world. In Institute of Development Studies. https:// core. ac. uk/ downl oad/ pdf/ 19918 315. pdf. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Al Jazeera. 2019. Hundreds of ISIL prisoners escape Syrian camp, Kurds say. https:// www. aljaz eera. com/ news/ 2019/ 10/ 13/ hundr eds- of- isil- priso ners- escape- syrian- camp- kurds- say. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Al Jazeera. 2021. China’s Xi: SCO states should help drive smooth Afghan transition. https:// www. aljaz eera. com/ news/ 2021/9/ 17/ chinas- xi- sco- states- should- help- drive- smooth- afghan- trans ition. Accessed 29 Sept 2021. Altynbayev, Kanat. 2021. China’s security expansion in Tajikistan sparks concerns in Russia. https:// centr al. asia- news. com/ en_ GB/ artic les/ cnmi_ ca/ featu res/ 2021/ 12/ 13/ featu re- 01. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. ANI. 2021. Tajikistan denies reports of Chinese constructing military base on its border with Afghanistan. https:// www. anine ws. in/ news/ world/ asia/ tajik istan- denies- repor ts- of- chine se- const ructi ng- milit ary- base- on- its- border- with- afgha nista n2021 10311 95811/. Accessed 27 Dec 2021. Asian Development Bank. 2017. Meeting Asia’s infrastructure needs, 0 ed. Manila: Asian Development Bank. https:// doi. org/ 10. 22617/ FLS16 8388-2. Asiryan, Aleksey, and Yiming He. 2020. The dynamics of Sino-Russian relations in Central Asia. In E-International Relations. https:// www.e- ir. info/ 2020/ 10/ 25/ the- dynam ics- of- sino- russi an- relat ions- in- centr al- asia/. Accessed 20 Dec 2021. Associated Press. 2021. The cost of America’s longest war: Thousands of lives, trillions of dollars. https:// www. voane ws. com/a/ south- centr al- asia_ cost- ameri cas- longe st- war- thous ands- lives- trill ions- dolla rs/ 62101 61. html. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Azad, Sohrab. 2020. China’s stake in the Afghan peace process. https:// thedi plomat. com/ 2020/ 09/ chinas- stake- in- the- afghan- peace- proce ss/. Accessed 29 Sept 2021. BBC. 2011. China gets approval for Afghanistan oil exploration bid. BBC News, December 27. https:// www. bbc. com/ news/ busin ess- 16336 453. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Blanchard, Ben. 2017. Syria says up to 5,000 Chinese Uighurs fighting in militant groups. Reuters, May 11. https:// www. reute rs. com/ artic le/ uk- midea st- crisis- syria- china/ syria- says- up- to- 5000- chine se- uighu rs- fight ing- in- milit ant- groups- idUSK BN184 0UP. Botobekov, Uran. 2017. Uighur foreign fighters: Al Qaeda’s connection. https:// www. euras iarev iew. com/ 10122 017- china- and- the- turke stan- islam ic- party- from- separ atism- to- world- jihad- analy sis/. Accessed 19 Oct 2019. CGTN. 2021. Wang Yi says Afghanistan stands at crossroads of history. https:// news. cgtn. com/ news/ 2021- 09- 08/ Afghan- neigh bors- hold- FMs- meeti ng- 13oqr TC28Mg/ index. html. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Chen, Yueyi. 2018. Belt and Road Initiative increases sovereign debt risks in Tajikistan. https:// globa lrisk insig hts. com/ 2018/ 07/ belt- and- road- initi ative- incre ases- sover eign- debt- risks- in- tajik istan/. Accessed 21 Dec 2021. Chen, Julie Yu-Wen, and Soledad Jiménez-Tovar. 2017. China in Central Asia: Local perceptions from future elites. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies 03 (03): 429–445. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1142/ S2377 74001 75001 78 ( World Century ). Chung, Chien-peng. 2004. The Shanghai Co-operation Organization: China’s changing influence in Central Asia. The China Quarterly 180: 989–1009. Clarke, Colin P., and Paul Rexton Kan. 2017. Uighur Foreign Fighters: An Underexamined Jihadist Challenge. ICCT Policy Brief, November. International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. https:// icct. nl/ publi cation/ uighur- forei gn- fight ers- an- under exami ned- jihad ist- chall enge/. Cooley, Alexander. 2021. On the brink and at the world’s edge: Western approaches to Central Asia’s international politics, 1991–2021. Central Asian Survey 40 (4): 555–575. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 02634 937. 2021. 19748 18 (Routledge). Dalton, Ben. 2017. Is Central Asia a ‘hotbed for extremism’?. https:// www. aljaz eera. com/ news/ 2017/ 11/6/ nyc- attack- is- centr al- asia-a- hotbed- for- extre mism. Accessed 29 Sept 2021. Devonshire-Ellis, Chris. 2021. China to build military bases in Tajikistan. Silk road briefing. https:// www. silkr oadbr iefing. com/ news/ 2021/ 11/ 02/ china- to- build- milit ary- bases- in- tajik istan/. Accessed 27 Dec 2021. DW. 2021. Afghanistan: Taliban road construction projects stall without foreign funding. https:// www. dw. com/ en/ afgha nistan- talib an- road- const ructi on- proje cts- stall- witho ut- forei gn- fundi ng/a- 59536 988. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Ellis, Sam. 2018. How the US failed to rebuild Afghanistan. https:// www. vox. com/ world/ 2018/1/ 11/ 16878 056/ afgha nistan- us- fail- war- talib an. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 14 of 16 Eurasianet. 2020. Tajikistan: Secret Chinese base becomes slightly less secret. https:// euras ianet. org/ tajik istan- secret- chine se- base- becom es- sligh tly- less- secret. Accessed 24 Dec 2021. Farchy, Jack. 2016. Kazakh language schools shift from English to Chinese. Financial Times, May 9. https:// www. ft. com/ conte nt/ 6ce4a 6ac- 0c85- 11e6- 9456- 444ab 5211a 2f. Accessed 4 Oct 2021. Freeman, Carla P. 2018. New strategies for an old rivalry? China-Russia relations in Central Asia after the energy boom. The Pacific Review 31 (5): 635–654. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 09512 748. 2017. 13987 75 (Routledge). Greenfield, Charlotte. 2021a. Analysis: As West ponders aid for Afghanistan, China and Pakistan quick to provide relief. Reuters, September 12. https:// www. reute rs. com/ world/ middle- east/ west- ponde rs- aid- afgha nistan- china- pakis tan- quick- provi de- relief- 2021- 09- 12/. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Greenfield, Charlotte. 2021b. Pakistan discussing expansion of CPEC to Afghanistan -ambassador. Reuters, September 27. https:// www. reute rs. com/ world/ asia- paci fic/ pakis tan- discu ssing- expan sion- cpec- afgha nistan- ambas sador- 2021- 09- 27/. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Grossman, Derek. 2021. China and Pakistan see eye to eye on the Taliban—Almost. https:// www. rand. org/ blog/ 2021/ 09/ china- and- pakis tan- see- eye- to- eye- on- the- talib an- almost. html. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Guterres, António. 2018. Central Asia, Afghanistan possess potential to become symbols of dialogue, peace, Secretary- General Tells Security Council Debate on building regional partnerships. https:// www. un. org/ press/ en/ 2018/ sgsm1 8859. doc. htm. Accessed 20 Dec 2021. Heathershaw, John., and Nick Megoran. 2011. Contesting danger: A new agenda for policy and scholarship on Central Asia. International Aairs ff 87 (3): 589–612. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1111/j. 1468- 2346. 2011. 00992.x. Honig, Steven. 2020. Who pays? Central Asia and China’s debt dilemma. In Foreign Brief. https:// www. forei gnbri ef. com/ former- soviet- union/ who- pays- centr al- asia- and- chinas- debt- dilem ma/. Accessed 27 Dec 2021. Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. 2021. IPC acute food insecurity analysis September 2021 - March 2022: Afghanistan. October. https:// www. ipcin fo. org/ filea dmin/ user_ upload/ ipcin fo/ docs/ IPC_ Afgha nistan_ Acute FoodI nsec_ 2021O ct202 2Mar_ report. pdf. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. IRIN News. 2001. IRIN focus on Uyghur community caught in “political games”. https:// www. thene whuma nitar ian. org/ fr/ node/ 184094. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Israeli Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center. 2014. Foreign fighters from various countries and regions in Asia, fighting against the Syrian regime, most of them in organizations affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the global jihad. http:// www. terro rism- info. org. il/ en/ artic le/ 20639. Accessed 14 Mar 2017. Jiang, Jon Yuan. 2021a. China’s education diplomacy in Central Asia. https:// www. lowyi nstit ute. org/ the- inter preter/ china- s- educa tion- diplo macy- centr al- asia. Accessed 24 Dec 2021. Jiang, Yuan. 2021b. Is Russia starting to sour on China?. https:// thedi plomat. com/ 2021/ 10/ is- russia- start ing- to- sour- on- china/. Accessed 24 Dec 2021. Kashgarian, Asim. 2021. How Uyghurs, Taliban view each other — and why it matters. https:// www. voane ws. com/a/ how- uyghu rs- talib an- view- each- other- and- why- it- matte rs-/ 62432 41. html. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Korybko, Andrew. 2019. China, Pakistan can help Afghanistan, Tajikistan thwart terrorism. https:// news. cgtn. com/ news/ 2019- 11- 10/ China- Pakis tan- can- help- Afgha nistan- Tajik istan- thwart- terro rism- Lu3M5 ls1sA/ index. html. Accessed 20 Dec 2021. Kuaibao, X. 2012. Zhongshiyou Afuhan Kantan Zao Qian Junfa Weixie(CNPC’s exploration in Afghanistan is threatened by former warlords). https:// www. china 5e. com/ news/ news- 228167- 1. html. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Kumakura, Jun. 2021. China’s influence in Central Asia: Sinophobia and the wave of anti-China protests. In China’s Influ- ence and the Center-Periphery Tug of War in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Indo-Pacific, eds. B.C.H. Fong, J. Wu, and A.J. Nathan, 296–309. London, New York: Routledge. https:// www. routl edge. com/ Chinas- Influ ence- and- the- Center- perip hery- Tug- of- War- in- Hong- Kong- Taiwan/ Fong- Wu- Nathan/ p/ book/ 97803 67533 564. Accessed 21 Dec 2021. Landale, James. 2021. Afghanistan: What rise of Taliban means for Pakistan. BBC News, September 3. https:// www. bbc. com/ news/ world- asia- 58443 839. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. Landay, Jonathan. 2021. Profits and poppy: Afghanistan’s illegal drug trade a boon for Taliban. Reuters, August 16. https:// www. reute rs. com/ world/ asia- paci fic/ profi ts- poppy- afgha nista ns- illeg al- drug- trade- boon- talib an- 2021- 08- 16/. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Lee, Jones, and Hameiri Shahar. 2020. Debunking the myth of ‘Debt-trap Diplomacy’. https:// www. chath amhou se. org/ 2020/ 08/ debun king- myth- debt- trap- diplo macy/ summa ry. Accessed 24 Nov 2021. Lehmann, Daniel. 2021. The state of the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Asia. https:// www. caspi anpol icy. org/ the- state- of- the- covid- 19- pande mic- in- centr al- asia/. Accessed 4 Oct 2021. Lemon, Edward. 2018. Assessing the terrorist threat in and from Central Asia. In Voices On Cental Asia. https:// voice sonce ntral asia. org/ asses sing- the- terro rist- threat- in- and- from- centr al- asia/. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Lo, Bobo. 2008. Axis of convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the new geopolitics. In Chatham House: Brookings Institution Press. https:// doi. org/ 10. 7864/j. ctt6w phdn. Accessed 20 Dec 2021. Lukin, Alexander. 2021. Have we passed the peak of Sino-Russian rapprochement? The Washington Quarterly 44 (3): 155–173. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 01636 60X. 2021. 19709 04 (Routledge). Mallinson, Kate. 2021. Afghanistan creates tricky new reality for Central Asia. https:// www. chath amhou se. org/ 2021/ 08/ afgha nistan- creat es- tricky- new- reali ty- centr al- asia. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Mangi, Faseeh, Khalid Qayum, and Ismail Dilawar. 2021. Taliban victory in Afghanistan fuels terror attacks in Pakistan. Bloomberg.com, September 28. https:// www. bloom berg. com/ news/ artic les/ 2021- 09- 28/ talib an- victo ry- in- afgha nistan- fuels- terror- attac ks- in- pakis tan. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. McKernan, Bethan. 2020. Islamic State prisoners escape from Syrian jail after militants riot. http:// www. thegu ardian. com/ world/ 2020/ mar/ 30/ islam ic- state- priso ners- escape- from- syrian- jail- after- milit ants- riot. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. Moret, Erica. 2021. The role of sanctions in Afghanistan’s Humanitarian crisis. In IPI Global Observatory. https:// thegl obalo bserv atory. org/ 2021/ 10/ the- role- of- sanct ions- in- afgha nista ns- human itari an- crisis/. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. Mufti, Mariam. 2012. Religion and militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan: A literature review. Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies. https:// csis- websi te- prod. s3. amazo naws. com/ s3fs- public/ legacy_ files/ files/ publi cation/ 120628_ Mufti_ Relig ionMi litan cy_ Web. pdf. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 15 of 16 O’Reilly, Brendan. 2015. China is winning the new Great Game in Central Asia. https:// www. gisre ports online. com/ china- is- winni ng- the- new- great- game- in- centr al- asia,polit ics,1782. html. Accessed 4 Oct 2021. OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2008. 2018. China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the global trade, investment and finance landscape. https:// www. oecd- ilibr ary. org/ finan ce- and- inves tment/ oecd- busin ess- and- finan ce- outlo ok- 2018/ the- belt- and- road- initi ative- in- the- global- trade- inves tment- and- finan ce- lands cape_ bus_ fin_ out- 2018-6- en. Accessed 7 Oct 2021. Peyrouse, Sébastien. 2016. Discussing China: Sinophilia and Sinophobia in Central Asia. Journal of Eurasian Studies 7 (1): 14–23. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1016/j. euras. 2015. 10. 003 (SAGE Publications Ltd). Piekos, William, and Elizabeth C. Economy. 2015. The risks and rewards of SCO expansion. https:// www. cfr. org/ expert- brief/ risks- and- rewar ds- sco- expan sion. Accessed 12 Dec 2017. Putz, Catherine. 2021. Vaccine diplomacy in Central Asia: Russia vs. China? https:// thedi plomat. com/ 2021/ 03/ vacci ne- diplo macy- in- centr al- asia- russia- vs- china/. Accessed 27 Dec 2021. Rehman, Zia Ur. 2020. China pushes Pakistan to open trade routes with Afghanistan. https:// asia. nikkei. com/ Spotl ight/ Belt- and- Road/ China- pushes- Pakis tan- to- open- trade- routes- with- Afgha nistan. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. Reuters. 2019. Dozens protest against Chinese influence in Kazakhstan. Reuters, September 4. https:// www. reute rs. com/ artic le/ us- kazak hstan- china- prote sts/ dozens- prote st- again st- chine se- influ ence- in- kazak hstan- idUSK CN1VP 1B0. Accessed 11 Mar 2020. Reuters. 2021a. Factbox: What are Afghanistan’s untapped minerals and resources? Reuters, August 19. https:// www. reute rs. com/ world/ asia- paci fic/ what- are- afgha nista ns- untap ped- miner als- resou rces- 2021- 08- 19/. Accessed 28 Dec Reuters. 2021b. Pakistan Taliban demand prisoner release as condition for talks - sources. Reuters, November 6. https:// www. reute rs. com/ world/ asia- paci fic/ pakis tan- talib an- demand- priso ner- relea se- condi tion- talks- sourc es- 2021- 11- 06/. Accessed 29 Dec 2021. Rolland, Nadège. 2019. A China-Russia Condominium over Eurasia. Survival 61 (1): 7–22. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 00396 338. 2019. 15680 43 (Routledge). Rosenblatt, Nate. 2016. All Jihad is local: what ISIS’ files tell us about its fighters. International Security Program, 20 July. New America Foundation. https:// www. newam erica. org/ inter natio nal- secur ity/ policy- papers/ all- jihad- is- local/. Accessed 18 Oct 2019. Rymbetov, Serik. 2021. Anti-China sentiments grows in Kazakhstan as economic cooperation stalls. https:// james town. org/ progr am/ anti- china- senti ments- grows- in- kazak hstan- as- econo mic- coope ration- stalls/. Accessed 4 Oct 2021. Sahakyan, Mher D. 2021. Russia’s greater Eurasian partnership strategy: Aims and prospects. https:// www. asiag lobal online. hku. hk/ russi as- great er- euras ian- partn ership- strat egy- aims- and- prosp ects. Accessed 27 Dec 2021. Sayed, Abdul. 2021. The Evolution and future of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. https:// carne gieen dowme nt. org/ 2021/ 12/ 21/ evolu tion- and- future- of- tehrik- e- talib an- pakis tan- pub- 86051. Accessed 29 Dec 2021. Select Committee on International Relations and Defence, The UK and Afghanistan: 2nd Report of Session 2019-21. https:// commi ttees. parli ament. uk/ publi catio ns/ 4185/ docum ents/ 43162/ defau lt/. Accessed 25 Jul 2022. Shachtman Noah. 2018. Open Source Tools Turn WikiLeaks Into Illustrated Afghan Meltdown (Updated). Wired, Septem- ber 8. https:// www. wired. com/ 2010/ 08/ open- source- wikil eaked- docs- illus trated- afghan- meltd own/. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Shakhanova, Gaziza, and Jeremy Garlick. 2020. The Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union: Explor- ing the “Greater Eurasian Partnership”. https:// click. endno te. com/ viewer? doi= 10. 1177% 2F186 81026 20911 666& token= WzMyM TMwOD IsIjE wLjEx NzcvM Tg2OD EwMjY yMDkx MTY2N iJd. XlN6D 2J2B6 aBbEb UXGxL LKjI- Rg. Accessed 20 Dec 2021. Silver, Laura, Kat Devlin, and Christine Huang. 2020. Unfavorable views of China reach historic highs in many countries. In Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. https:// www. pewre search. org/ global/ 2020/ 10/ 06/ unfav orable- views- of- china- reach- histo ric- highs- in- many- count ries/. Accessed 4 Oct 2021. Small, Andrews. 2017. What’s Behind China’s Growing Security Presence in Afghanistan? https:// www. world polit icsre view. com/ artic les/ 21590/ what-s- behind- china-s- growi ng- secur ity- prese nce- in- afgha nistan. Accessed 6 Oct 2021. South Asia Monitor. 2020. China asks Pakistan to open five key borders with Afghanistan. https:// www. south asiam onitor. org/ index. php/ china- watch/ china- asks- pakis tan- open- five- key- borde rs- afgha nistan. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. 2016a. Afghanistan’s road infrastructure: Sustainment challenges and lack of repairs put U.S. Investment at Risk. USA: SAGE. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. 2016b. Quarterly report to the United States Congress. https:// www. sigar. mil/ pdf/ quart erlyr eports/ 2016- 10- 30qr. pdf. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Stronski, Paul, and Nicole Ng. 2018. Cooperation and competition: Russia and China in Central Asia, the Russian Far East, and the Arctic. https:// carne gieen dowme nt. org/ 2018/ 02/ 28/ coope ration- and- compe tition- russia- and- china- in- centr al- asia- russi an- far- east- and- arctic- pub- 75673. Accessed 29 Sept 2021. The SecDev Group. 2018. Violent Extremism in Central Asia 2018: A preliminary survey of groups, digital dimensions and state responses. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. https:// inter news. org/ wp- conte nt/ uploa ds/ legacy/ 2019- 07/ Viole nt_ extre mism_ Centr alAsia_ Eng- 2018. pdf. Accessed 25 Jul 2022. Tolonews. 2013. Amu Darya Basin Oil Extraction Operation Halted. https:// tolon ews. com/ busin ess/ amu- darya- basin- oil- extra ction- opera tion- halted. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Trilling, David. 2020. Poll shows Uzbeks, like neighbors, growing leery of Chinese investments | Eurasianet. https:// euras ianet. org/ poll- shows- uzbeks- like- neigh bors- growi ng- leery- of- chine se- inves tments. Accessed 21 Dec 2021. Tsikhay, Aliya. 2021. China and geoeconomic dynamics in Central Asia: Balancing global strategies, local interests and multiple partners. Geoeconomics Series, October. Finnish Institute of International Affairs. https:// www. tepsa. eu/ china- and- geoec onomic- dynam ics- in- centr al- asia- balan cing- global- strat egies- local- inter ests- and- multi ple- partn ers- aliya- tsikh ay- fiia- finla nd/. Accessed 21 Dec 2021. Tskhay, Aliya, and Costa Buranelli Filippo. 2020. Accommodating Revisionism through Balancing Regionalism: The case of Central Asia. Europe-Asia Stud 72 (6): 1033–1052. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 09668 136. 2020. 17791 84 (Routledge). Zhang Asian Review of Political Economy (2022) 1:10 Page 16 of 16 Turner, Susan. 2011. China and Russia After the Russian-Georgian War. Comparative Strategy 30 (1): 50–59. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 01495 933. 2011. 545687 (Routledge). Umarov, Temur. 2021. Why Russia sees little threat in China’s growing involvement in Tajikistan. https:// carne giemo scow. org/ comme ntary/ 86103. Accessed 20 Mar 2022. United Nations Security Council. 2020. Twenty-fifth report of the analytical support and sanctions monitoring team submitted pursuant to resolution 2368 (2017) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities. https:// undocs. org/ en/S/ 2020/ 53. Accessed 19 Aug 2020. United Nations Security Council. 2021a. Afghanistan: Vote on 1988 Sanctions Resolution*. https:// www. secur ityco uncil report. org/ whats inblue/ 2021/ 12/ afgha nistan- vote- on- 1988- sanct ions- exemp tion- resol ution. php. Accessed 23 Dec 2021. United Nations Security Council. 2021b. S/2021b/486. https:// www. ecoi. net/ en/ file/ local/ 20534 87/S_ 2021_ 486_E. pdf . Accessed 25 Jul 2022. USAID. 2021. The United States Announces Nearly $64 Million in Additional Humanitarian Assistance for Afghanistan | Press Release | U.S. Agency for International Development. https:// www. usaid. gov/ news- infor mation/ press- relea ses/ sep- 13- 2021- united- states- nearly- 64- milli on- addit ional- human itari an- assis tance- afgha nistan. Accessed 5 Oct Watts, Clint. 2016. Beyond Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State’s HR Files illuminate dangerous trends. 1 June. Foreign Policy Research Institue. https:// waron thero cks. com/ 2016/ 06/ beyond- syria- and- iraq- the- islam ic- states- hr- files- illum inate- dange rous- trends/. Accessed 25 Oct 2017. Weitz, Richard. 2018. Assessing the Collective Security Treaty Organization: Capabilities and vulnerabilities. In Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College. http:// www. jstor. org/ stable/ resre p20082. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Wigell, Mikael. 2016. Conceptualizing regional powers’ geoeconomic strategies: Neo-imperialism, neo-mercantil- ism, hegemony, and liberal institutionalism. Asia Europe Journal 14 (2): 135–151. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1007/ s10308- 015- 0442-x. Wigton-Jones, Evan. 2021. The unintended harms of infrastructure: Opium and road construction in Afghanistan. Journal of Comparative Economics 49 (2): 405–424. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1016/j. jce. 2020. 10. 002. Wishnick, Elizabeth. 2009. Russia, China, and the United States in Central Asia: Prospects for Great Power Competition and Cooperation in the Shadow of the Georgian Crisis. In Strategic Studies Institute. Xi, J. 2013. Xi Jinping Zai Hasakesitan Zhaerbayefu Daxue De Yanjiang (Xi Jinping’s speech at the Nazarbayev University). http:// www. gov. cn/ ldhd/ 2013- 09/ 08/ conte nt_ 24835 65. htm. Accessed 24 Dec 2021. Xie, Jun, and Daye Chu. 2021. Extension of CPEC into Afghanistan to boost local exports, journey of peace: analysts. https:// www. globa ltimes. cn/ page/ 202107/ 12285 18. shtml. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Yau, Niva. 2021. China polishes its image in Central Asia through the soft power of language. https:// www. opend emocr acy. net/ en/ odr/ china- centr al- asia- soft- power- langu age/. Accessed 24 Dec 2021. Yuan, Jingdong. 2010. China’s role in establishing and building the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Journal of Contemporary China 19 (67): 855–869. https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 10670 564. 2010. 508587. Zenn, Jacob. 2017. Central Asian Militants’ Shifting Loyalties in Syria: The Case of The Turkistan Islamic Party. https:// www. cacia nalyst. org/ publi catio ns/ analy tical- artic les/ item/ 13438- centr al- asian- milit ants’- shift ing- loyal ties- in- syria- the- case- of- the- turki stan- islam ic- party. html. Accessed 5 Oct 2021. Zenn, Jacob. 2018. The Turkistan Islamic Party in Double-Exile: Geographic and Organizational Divisions in Uighur Jihad- ism. Terrorism Monitor 16(17). https:// james town. org/ progr am/ the- turki stan- islam ic- party- in- double- exile- geogr aphic- and- organ izati onal- divis ions- in- uighur- jihad ism/. Accessed 7 Jan 2020. Zhang, Min, and Shivani Singh. 2021. UPDATE 1-China’s Jiangxi Copper to develop Afghanistan copper mine when situ- ation allows. Reuters, September 13. https:// www. reute rs. com/ artic le/ afgha nistan- confl ict- jiang xi- copper- idUSL 1N2QF 07O. Accessed 28 Dec 2021. Zhang, Dan, and Kunyi Yang. 2021. Central Asian countries aim to attract more investment from China. https:// www. globa ltimes. cn/ page/ 202106/ 12275 11. shtml. Accessed 29 Sept 2021. Zhang, Chi. 2019. The double track system of Terrorism Proscription in China. Terrorism and Political Violence,. Informa UK Limited: 1–22.https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 09546 553. 2018. 15495 47. Zhang, Rachel. 2021. Wang calls for lifting of sanctions on Afghanistan. https:// advan ce. lexis. com/ docum ent/? pdmfid= 15193 60& crid= f53e9 7f4- 5467- 404e- b609- d9572 b03d1 e5& pddoc fullp ath=% 2Fsha red% 2Fdoc ument% 2Fnews% 2Furn% 3Acon tentI tem% 3A63NX- 2VD1- JC8V- 1194- 00000- 00& pdcon tentc ompon entid= 11314 & pdtea serkey= sr0& pditab= allpo ds& ecomp= xbxnk & earg= sr0& prid= ee52e 15e- 4b86- 42c5- 885d- a9f08 1f517 f4. Accessed 23 Dec Zogg, Benno. 2019. Cooperation, co-existence or clash? China and Russia’s ambitions in Central Asia. https:// thedi plomat. com/ 2019/ 11/ coope ration- co- exist ence- or- clash- china- and- russi as- ambit ions- in- centr al- asia/. Accessed 24 Dec

Journal

Asian Review of Political Economy – Springer Journals

Published: Dec 28, 2022

Keywords: Central Asia; Sino-Russian relations; Terrorism; Belt and Road Initiative; Security cooperation

There are no references for this article.