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Forecasting and Assessing Risk of Individual Electricity PeaksExtreme Value Theory

Forecasting and Assessing Risk of Individual Electricity Peaks: Extreme Value Theory [From travel disruptions to natural disasters, extreme events have long captured the public’s imagination and attention. Due to their rarity and often associated calamity, they make waves in the news (Fig. 3.1) and stir discussion in the public realm: is it a freak event? Events of this sort may be shrouded in mystery for the general public, but a particular branch of probability theory, notably Extreme Value Theory (EVT), offers insight to their inherent scarcity and stark magnitude. EVTExtreme value theory is a wonderfully rich and versatile theory which has already been adopted by a wide variety of disciplines in a plentiful way. From its humble beginnings in reliability engineering and hydrology, it has now expanded much further; it can be used to model the occurrences of records (say for example in athletic events) or quantify the probability of floods with magnitude greater than what has been observed in the past, i.e it allows us extrapolate beyond the range of available data!] http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png

Forecasting and Assessing Risk of Individual Electricity PeaksExtreme Value Theory

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References (22)

Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Copyright
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2020. This book is an open access publication.
ISBN
978-3-030-28668-2
Pages
39 –60
DOI
10.1007/978-3-030-28669-9_3
Publisher site
See Chapter on Publisher Site

Abstract

[From travel disruptions to natural disasters, extreme events have long captured the public’s imagination and attention. Due to their rarity and often associated calamity, they make waves in the news (Fig. 3.1) and stir discussion in the public realm: is it a freak event? Events of this sort may be shrouded in mystery for the general public, but a particular branch of probability theory, notably Extreme Value Theory (EVT), offers insight to their inherent scarcity and stark magnitude. EVTExtreme value theory is a wonderfully rich and versatile theory which has already been adopted by a wide variety of disciplines in a plentiful way. From its humble beginnings in reliability engineering and hydrology, it has now expanded much further; it can be used to model the occurrences of records (say for example in athletic events) or quantify the probability of floods with magnitude greater than what has been observed in the past, i.e it allows us extrapolate beyond the range of available data!]

Published: Sep 26, 2019

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