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- Publisher
- Springer Netherlands
- Copyright
- © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. 2013
- ISBN
- 978-90-481-8947-2
- Pages
- 109 –123
- DOI
- 10.1007/978-90-481-8948-9_7
- Publisher site
- See Chapter on Publisher Site
Abstract
[This chapter presents assumptions concerning expected future mortality in 27 selected European countries for the period 2002–2052. The assumptions are based on mortality theories as well as past trajectories in Europe in the second half of the twentieth century. Special attention is paid to the reduction of East–West and male–female gaps in life expectancy. Descriptive, knowledge-based expectations for future mortality are quantified in order to be useful for population dynamics modelling. The mortality scenarios obtained in that way are compared with ones applied in similar studies of national as well as global population projections.]
Published: Aug 30, 2012
Keywords: Life Expectancy; Forecast Horizon; Health Transition; Baltic State; Epidemiologic Transition