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[This chapter discusses a mathematical model for the spread of an infectious disease with transmission through a pathogen in an environment, including the effects of human contact with the environment. The model assumes a structured susceptible population consisting of both “low-risk” and “high-risk” individuals. It also includes the effects of shedding the pathogen by the infected population into the environment. The model has a disease-free equilibrium state, and a linear stability analysis shows three possible transmission routes. The model is applied to Buruli ulcer disease, a debilitating disease induced by Mycobacterium ulcerans. There is some uncertainty about the exact transmission path, but the bacteria is known to live in natural water environments. The model parameters are estimated from data on Buruli ulcer disease in Ghana. This chapter includes a sensitivity analysis of the total number of infected individuals to the parameters in the model.]
Published: Nov 2, 2019
Keywords: Infectious disease; Buruli ulcer disease; Pathogen in environment; Risk-structured model; Ghana
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