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Mathematics of Planet EarthThe Mathematics of Extinction Across Scales: From Populations to the Biosphere

Mathematics of Planet Earth: The Mathematics of Extinction Across Scales: From Populations to the... [The sixth mass extinction poses an unparalleled quantitative challenge to conservation biologists. Mathematicians and ecologists alike face the problem of developing models that can scale predictions of extinction rates from populations to the level of a species, or even to an entire ecosystem. We review some of the most basic stochastic and analytical methods of calculating extinction risk at different scales, including population viability analysis, stochastic metapopulation occupancy models, and the species–area relationship. We also consider two extensions of theory: the possibility of evolutionary rescue from extinction in a changing environment and the posthumous assignment of an extinction date from sighting records. In the case of the latter, we provide a new example using data on Spix’s macaw, the “rarest bird in the world,” to demonstrate the challenges associated with extinction date research.] http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png

Mathematics of Planet EarthThe Mathematics of Extinction Across Scales: From Populations to the Biosphere

Part of the Mathematics of Planet Earth Book Series (volume 5)
Editors: Kaper, Hans G.; Roberts, Fred S.
Carlson, Colin J.; Burgio, Kevin R.; Dallas, Tad A.; Getz, Wayne M.
Mathematics of Planet Earth — Nov 2, 2019
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39 pages

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References (2)

  • KC Abbott (2007)

    903

    Oikos, 116

  • KC Abbott (2011)

    1158

    Ecol. Lett., 14

Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Copyright
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019
ISBN
978-3-030-22043-3
Pages
225 –264
DOI
10.1007/978-3-030-22044-0_9
Publisher site
See Chapter on Publisher Site

Abstract

[The sixth mass extinction poses an unparalleled quantitative challenge to conservation biologists. Mathematicians and ecologists alike face the problem of developing models that can scale predictions of extinction rates from populations to the level of a species, or even to an entire ecosystem. We review some of the most basic stochastic and analytical methods of calculating extinction risk at different scales, including population viability analysis, stochastic metapopulation occupancy models, and the species–area relationship. We also consider two extensions of theory: the possibility of evolutionary rescue from extinction in a changing environment and the posthumous assignment of an extinction date from sighting records. In the case of the latter, we provide a new example using data on Spix’s macaw, the “rarest bird in the world,” to demonstrate the challenges associated with extinction date research.]

Published: Nov 2, 2019

Keywords: Mean time to extinction; Sighting records; Sixth mass extinction; Species–area relationship; Population viability analysis

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