Abstract

Regional Analysis 102 Nagorno-Karabakh 118 Conflict Reports Regional Outlook 127 Russia–Ukraine 106 A Uk A Ukr rainian soldier stands ainian soldier stands guar guard o d ov ver the er the O Odesa Na desa National tional A Academic Oper cademic Opera and Ballet a and Ballet T Thea heatr tre e, 14 M , 14 Mar arch 2022 ch 2022 Overview Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 conflict remains real – especially given develop- February 2022 began the largest armed conflict ments that suggest Azerbaijan may seek to gain in Europe since the Second World War, with far- control over further territory. reaching implications for Eurasia, Europe and During the reporting period, Georgia’s Russia- beyond. While Russia’s primary goal of imposing occupied breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and a pro-Moscow regime in Ukraine has failed, the South Ossetia remained calm but under tension, outcome of the war remains highly uncertain amid while several incidents (including explosions and a a significant risk that it could escalate to even more rocket attack in April 2022) took place in Moldova’s intense or destructive forms of conflict. separatist region of Transnistria. Elsewhere in the region, relations between A flare-up of tensions between