Abstract

Minsk BELARUS RUSSI A BELARUS POLAND Regional Analysis 86 Conflict Reports Ukraine 92 Kiev Nagorno-Karabakh 102 UKRAINE Ukraine MOLDOVA ROMANIA 13 21 ACGRI pillars: The scores are displayed for Ukraine and the Nagorno-Karabakh conict. IISS Nagorno-Karabakh calculation based on multiple sources for 2020 and GEORGIA The scores (0–100 scale) for the three ACGRI January/February 2021. pillars are displayed for Ukraine and the A: Human impact; B: Incidence; Armenia–Azerbaijan conict. ACGRI is AC C: Geopolitical impact AZERBAIJAN calculated by the IISS using multiple sources ARMENIA for 2020 and January/February 2021. Conict hotspot Conict hotspots An Azerbaijani soldier near Source: IISS the ruins of a destroyed military recruitment office Overview Both conflicts unfolded along Eurasian geopo- litical fault lines, sharing a combination of domestic The flashpoints in eastern Ukraine and Nagorno- drivers and regional accelerators. These factors were Karabakh continued to dominate the conflict further compounded by external actors’ influence. landscape in Europe and Eurasia. The former saw While the war in Ukraine is not simply a ‘war in a build-up of Russian forces along the Ukraine− Europe’ but also ‘a war about European security’, Russia border in early 2021 that, coupled with an the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has shown how increase