Abstract

Armed-Group Proliferation: Origins and Consequences More non-state armed groups have emerged in the of groups, many with fewer than 20 fighters, fighting last eight years than in the previous eight decades. an urban guerrilla campaign. These micro-groups During this period the Islamic State, also known as outmanoeuvred government forces, merging, ISIS or ISIL, has attracted inordinate global concern, splintering, and devising new tactics and organisa- diverting attention from a trend that will define tional structures. After defeating Gadhafi’s security conflict in the coming decade: the proliferation of battalions downtown, however, these highly adap- armed groups. These groups are built around highly tive smaller groups were no match for traditional adaptive alliances of smaller-scale units with diffuse government tactics and armour in the open fields leadership and authority. They act more like dis- surrounding the city. To address this challenge, ruptive start-ups than standard corporations. By the leaders of these small units negotiated alliances, contrast, ISIS was organised like the centralised uniting smaller units and dramatically increasing Marxist insurgencies of the late twentieth century, their firepower. The commanders of many new alli- such as FARC in Colombia, Maoist groups in ances, often elected by the group, announced their Nepal and