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Chapter One: Thematic Essays

Chapter One: Thematic Essays Pessimism and Planning in Armed Conflict Lawrence Freedman Predictions about developments in inter-state and intra-state armed conflicts are naturally influenced by recent experiences. This explains the optimism that fol- lowed the end of the Cold War and the singular experience of the 1991 Gulf War, and the pessimism now following the long insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, the souring of relations with Russia, the anxieties surrounding China, and the sudden prominence of the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL) as a source of mayhem in the Middle East and terrorism in Western countries. The current pessimism demonstrates why the former optimism was overdone. Might the reverse also be true, in that the current gloom understates the ability of Western countries to manage international affairs more effectively and reduce threats? From overconfidence to self-doubt The optimism of the 1990s reflected relief at the end of the Cold War and the successful handling of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Other matters were handled less well, as seen in the civil war in Rwanda and the break-up of Yugoslavia, but there were successes in humanitarian intervention and concepts of best practice were under development. Much of the optimism reflected American http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Armed Conflict Survey Taylor & Francis

Chapter One: Thematic Essays

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Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Copyright
© 2016 The International Institute for Strategic Studies
ISSN
2374-0981
eISSN
2374-0973
DOI
10.1080/23740973.2016.1168985
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Pessimism and Planning in Armed Conflict Lawrence Freedman Predictions about developments in inter-state and intra-state armed conflicts are naturally influenced by recent experiences. This explains the optimism that fol- lowed the end of the Cold War and the singular experience of the 1991 Gulf War, and the pessimism now following the long insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, the souring of relations with Russia, the anxieties surrounding China, and the sudden prominence of the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL) as a source of mayhem in the Middle East and terrorism in Western countries. The current pessimism demonstrates why the former optimism was overdone. Might the reverse also be true, in that the current gloom understates the ability of Western countries to manage international affairs more effectively and reduce threats? From overconfidence to self-doubt The optimism of the 1990s reflected relief at the end of the Cold War and the successful handling of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Other matters were handled less well, as seen in the civil war in Rwanda and the break-up of Yugoslavia, but there were successes in humanitarian intervention and concepts of best practice were under development. Much of the optimism reflected American

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Armed Conflict Survey – Taylor & Francis

Published: Jan 1, 2016

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