Abstract

Rapid urban growth in the developing world has Some urban centres in fragile or conflict-affected become a source of vulnerability and a key driver in countries have become sites of ‘conflict expansion’ the perpetration of armed conflict. Regions already – convergence points for illicit economies, non- struggling with poverty, weak political institutions state armed groups and displaced populations. In and conflict have been further destabilised by the other words, cities become tightly integrated into growing demands and social complexity stemming the broader dynamics of an armed conflict by sus- from sprawling urban areas. Far from being solely a taining, magnifying and transforming its dynamics, local issue, unmanaged urban growth has been rec- and sometimes leading to new conflict. The three ognised as a key global challenge within the United main conflict-expansion mechanisms – popula- Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. tion displacement, illicit economies and non-state The pressures unleashed by this process are heaviest group activities – can combine in different ways to upon poor countries. They are, however, potentially transform or prolong a conflict. Rapid urban pop- devastating in areas facing armed conflict. ulation growth facilitates this process, for instance, In sub-Saharan Africa, which hosts half of the