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Methods for National Population Forecasts: A Review

Methods for National Population Forecasts: A Review Abstract Three widely used classes of methods for forecasting national populations are reviewed: demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections, statistical time series methods for short-range forecasts, and structural modeling methods for the simulation and forecasting of the effects of policy changes. In each case, the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods are described. Factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population forecasts are articulated. Promising lines of additional research by statisticians and demographers are identified for each class of methods and for population forecasting generally. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of the American Statistical Association Taylor & Francis

Methods for National Population Forecasts: A Review

Methods for National Population Forecasts: A Review

Journal of the American Statistical Association , Volume 81 (396): 14 – Dec 1, 1986

Abstract

Abstract Three widely used classes of methods for forecasting national populations are reviewed: demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections, statistical time series methods for short-range forecasts, and structural modeling methods for the simulation and forecasting of the effects of policy changes. In each case, the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods are described. Factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population forecasts are articulated. Promising lines of additional research by statisticians and demographers are identified for each class of methods and for population forecasting generally.

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References (81)

Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Copyright
Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN
1537-274X
eISSN
0162-1459
DOI
10.1080/01621459.1986.10478347
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Abstract Three widely used classes of methods for forecasting national populations are reviewed: demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections, statistical time series methods for short-range forecasts, and structural modeling methods for the simulation and forecasting of the effects of policy changes. In each case, the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods are described. Factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population forecasts are articulated. Promising lines of additional research by statisticians and demographers are identified for each class of methods and for population forecasting generally.

Journal

Journal of the American Statistical AssociationTaylor & Francis

Published: Dec 1, 1986

Keywords: Demographic projections; Cohort-component method; Time series models; Structural models; Limits to forecast accuracy

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