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Quantifying the spatial implications of future land use policies in South Africa

Quantifying the spatial implications of future land use policies in South Africa AbstractLand use policies have a definite and lasting impact on the way that cities grow; however, it is difficult for policy- and decision-makers to observe and quantify the implications of their land use policies and strategies. There is thus a need for information and tools that can adequately support policy debates and influence decision-making through scientific evidence. Land use change models provide such a tool and have often been applied and tested in developed countries but lack the ability to simulate many of the multifaceted social problems observed in developing countries. Some more advanced models also require large amounts of data that are normally not available for South African cities. In this research, we adjust the existing Dyna-CLUE model to accommodate the unique multifaceted problems such as informal settlements, backyard shacks, rapid population growth and government interventions with regard to social housing projects and test the model for the city of Johannesburg. Two scenarios (AS-IS and Policy-Led) in combination with an urban development boundary (UDB) were tested and their effect was evaluated based on their influences on the cities spatial inequality, densification of the urban spatial pattern and increase in access to public transport. Results indicated that the Policy-Led scenario can improve the wealth and economic distributions between the north and south of the city. It can also provide more economic opportunities for the households living in the south of the city. Enforcing an UDB has a positive impact on urban sprawl and will result in increased densities across the city. The effect of the policies on the commuter distances indicated that both scenarios will lead to an overall increase in the number of households that have access to public transport, but the Policy-Led scenario will allow a greater number of low-income earners to have access to the public transport systems. We see great possibilities for using the existing model to simulate land use change in South African cities. The model requires less input data compared to some other modelling techniques and with small adjustments and adaptations can prove to be a useful tool for urban planners. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png South African Geographical Journal Taylor & Francis

Quantifying the spatial implications of future land use policies in South Africa

Quantifying the spatial implications of future land use policies in South Africa

South African Geographical Journal , Volume 99 (1): 23 – Jan 2, 2017

Abstract

AbstractLand use policies have a definite and lasting impact on the way that cities grow; however, it is difficult for policy- and decision-makers to observe and quantify the implications of their land use policies and strategies. There is thus a need for information and tools that can adequately support policy debates and influence decision-making through scientific evidence. Land use change models provide such a tool and have often been applied and tested in developed countries but lack the ability to simulate many of the multifaceted social problems observed in developing countries. Some more advanced models also require large amounts of data that are normally not available for South African cities. In this research, we adjust the existing Dyna-CLUE model to accommodate the unique multifaceted problems such as informal settlements, backyard shacks, rapid population growth and government interventions with regard to social housing projects and test the model for the city of Johannesburg. Two scenarios (AS-IS and Policy-Led) in combination with an urban development boundary (UDB) were tested and their effect was evaluated based on their influences on the cities spatial inequality, densification of the urban spatial pattern and increase in access to public transport. Results indicated that the Policy-Led scenario can improve the wealth and economic distributions between the north and south of the city. It can also provide more economic opportunities for the households living in the south of the city. Enforcing an UDB has a positive impact on urban sprawl and will result in increased densities across the city. The effect of the policies on the commuter distances indicated that both scenarios will lead to an overall increase in the number of households that have access to public transport, but the Policy-Led scenario will allow a greater number of low-income earners to have access to the public transport systems. We see great possibilities for using the existing model to simulate land use change in South African cities. The model requires less input data compared to some other modelling techniques and with small adjustments and adaptations can prove to be a useful tool for urban planners.

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References (42)

Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Copyright
© 2015 Society of South African Geographers
ISSN
2151-2418
eISSN
0373-6245
DOI
10.1080/03736245.2015.1117014
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

AbstractLand use policies have a definite and lasting impact on the way that cities grow; however, it is difficult for policy- and decision-makers to observe and quantify the implications of their land use policies and strategies. There is thus a need for information and tools that can adequately support policy debates and influence decision-making through scientific evidence. Land use change models provide such a tool and have often been applied and tested in developed countries but lack the ability to simulate many of the multifaceted social problems observed in developing countries. Some more advanced models also require large amounts of data that are normally not available for South African cities. In this research, we adjust the existing Dyna-CLUE model to accommodate the unique multifaceted problems such as informal settlements, backyard shacks, rapid population growth and government interventions with regard to social housing projects and test the model for the city of Johannesburg. Two scenarios (AS-IS and Policy-Led) in combination with an urban development boundary (UDB) were tested and their effect was evaluated based on their influences on the cities spatial inequality, densification of the urban spatial pattern and increase in access to public transport. Results indicated that the Policy-Led scenario can improve the wealth and economic distributions between the north and south of the city. It can also provide more economic opportunities for the households living in the south of the city. Enforcing an UDB has a positive impact on urban sprawl and will result in increased densities across the city. The effect of the policies on the commuter distances indicated that both scenarios will lead to an overall increase in the number of households that have access to public transport, but the Policy-Led scenario will allow a greater number of low-income earners to have access to the public transport systems. We see great possibilities for using the existing model to simulate land use change in South African cities. The model requires less input data compared to some other modelling techniques and with small adjustments and adaptations can prove to be a useful tool for urban planners.

Journal

South African Geographical JournalTaylor & Francis

Published: Jan 2, 2017

Keywords: Policy planning support; urban land use change models; urban planning; urban growth; simulating urban land use change

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