Abstract

The Security Implications of Climate Change Climate change is a high-probability, high-impact water availability complicates transboundary water security threat that will continue to accelerate over management, as along the Tigris, Euphrates, Nile, the coming decades, with a wide range of impli- Indus, Mekong and other river systems that support cations for the geostrategic environment. Climate large populations, as well as transboundary aquifers. change works as a ‘threat multiplier’ – it exacerbates Food insecurity can be a trigger for demonstrations, the drivers of conflict by deepening existing fragili- which may lead to the expression of broader ties within societies, straining weak institutions, political grievances that threaten regimes, as in reshaping power balances and undermining post- Egypt during the Arab Spring in 2011 and in Sudan conflict recovery and peacebuilding. Projections of since December 2018. The political reverberations of the speed and the magnitude of climate change vary, climate-linked migration and refugee movements but both long-term climate trends (such as sea-level can create geopolitical challenges far from migrants’ rise and desertification) and short-term irregulari- origin countries. Elsewhere, as climate change shifts ties and extremes (known as ‘climate variability’, the viability of countries’ key economic sectors e.g., seasonal variations) can influence social