Abstract
ALL EARTH 2023, VOL. 35, NO. 1, 2178127 https://doi.org/10.1080/27669645.2023.2178127 Urgent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is needed to avoid irreversible tipping points: time is running out a,b Ilan Stavi a b Dead Sea and Arava Science Center, Yotvata, Israel; Eilat Campus, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Eilat, Israel ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY Received 26 December 2022 This essay addresses climate change and its main causes over the last three decades. Between Accepted 3 February 2023 1992–2021, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have risen continually. Specifically, the major socioeconomic sectors – including (1) energy, (2) industry, (3) land-use/land-use KEYWORDS change/agriculture, (4) transportation, (5) building/construction, and (6) waste treatment/ Climate change mitigation disposal – have emitted enormous amounts of GHGs. Between 1992–2019, the combined and adaptation; climatic annual GHG emissions have risen by 53% – from 32.6 to 49.8 Gt CO equivalent (CO e). The positive feedbacks; 2 2 combined GHG concentration has increased by 33% – from 382 ppm CO e in 1992 to 508 ppm Conference of Parties (COP); −2 Representative CO e in 2021. The combined radiative forcing has surged by 45% – from 2.226 W m in 1992 to −2 Concentration Pathway 3.222 W m in 2021. At the current emission rate, the entire GHG credit for limiting global (RCP) 1.9/RCP2.6; United warming to 1.5°C or 2.0°C – according to the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) 1–1.9 or Nations Framework SSP1–2.6, respectively – in 2100 compared to preindustrial levels may be fully exploited Convention on Climate by~2030. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2.0°C will require total GHG emissions to peak Change (UNFCCC) before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% or 25%, respectively, in 2030 relative to 2019, followed by zero net emissions in the early 2050s or 2070s, respectively. 1. Introduction 2.0°C at the most (IPCC, 2019). Despite these intergo- vernmental efforts, over the past three decades (1992– Over recent decades, global climate change has 2021), global temperature anomaly relative both the become evident, manifested by rising temperatures, 1901–2000 and 1951–1980 baselines has increased increasing severity and duration of droughts over substantially (Figure 1(a)). extensive parts of the world (Naumann et al., 2018), Over the same period, annual emissions of green- and higher frequency and magnitude of intense rain- house gases (GHGs) have risen by 53% – from 32.6 Gt storms causing devastating floods (Liao et al., 2019). carbon dioxide equivalent (CO e) in 1992 to 49.8 Gt CO 2 2 The establishment of the United Nations Framework e in 2019 (Figure 1(b)). Concordantly, the combined CO Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and e atmospheric concentration of total GHGs rose by the concurrent UN Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro 33% – from 382 ppm in 1992 to 508 ppm in 2021 primarily aimed at formulating the intergovernmental (Figure 1(c)). Among the GHGs, atmospheric concentra- basis for collaborative efforts in climate change mitiga- tions of the major ones, including carbon dioxide (CO ), tion and adaptation (Seo, 2017). The subsequent methane (CH ), and nitrous oxide (N O) have risen over 4 2 establishment of the Conference of Parties (COP) this period by 17% (Figure 2(a)), 10% (Figure 2(b)), and mechanism was particularly aimed at implementing 8% (Figure 2(c)), respectively (https://www.eea.europa. the UNFCCC policy, while serving as the worldwide eu/data-and-maps/daviz/atmospheric-concentration-of executive authority for climate-related decision mak- -carbon-dioxide-5#tab-chart_5_filters=%7B% ing (Wamsler et al., 2020). Between 1995–2021, world 22rowFilters%22%3A%7B%7D%3B%22columnFilters% leaders met at numerous COP annual meetings to 22%3A%7B%22pre_config_polutant%22%3A%5B% coordinate the intergovernmental climate change- 22N2O%20ppb%22%5D%7D%7D). Further, the rate of related actions (Stavi, 2022). Following COP21, held in increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations has accel- Paris in 2015, the Paris Agreement was published, erated over time. For example, the mean growth rate of −1 −1 highlighting the need to limit global warming com- CO was 1.5 ppm y between 1991–2000, 1.9 ppm y −1 pared to preindustrial levels (the 1850–1900 baseline). between 2001–2010, and 2.4 ppm y between 2011– Specifically, to negate irreversible climate tipping 2020 (https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html). points that may trigger a cascading series of events Regardless, over a 100-y period, the global warming with severe consequences and sometimes unexpected potential (GWP) of CH , N O, and halogenated com- 4 2 climatic feedbacks (Wunderling et al., 2021), the max- pounds is 27–30, 273, and thousands to tens-of- imum temperature increase by 2100 was set to 1.5°C or thousands times greater, respectively, than that of CO CONTACT Ilan Stavi istavi@adssc.org Dead Sea and Arava Science Center, Yotvata 88820, Israel © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ALL EARTH 39 Figure 1. Changes between 1992–2019 in: global temperature anomalies relative to the 1901–2000 and 1951–1980 base periods (a); total greenhouse gases (GHGs, in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO e)) emission (b); and CO e concentration (c). Data source for 2 2 the 1901-2000 base period: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series, data source for the 1951-1980 base period: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/(a); Data source: https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions (b); Data source: https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding- The introduced Shared Socio-Economic Pathway global-warming-potentials). (SSP) (also known as the Representative Over the past three decades, the radiative forcing Concentration Pathway (RCP)) scheme defines the (the atmospheric heating effect) of CO , CH , N O, boundaries for radiative forcing in order to negate 2 4 2 and halogenated compounds has increased by 62% climate tipping points (Shukla et al., 2019). The main −2 (from 1.325 to 2.140 W m ), 13% (from 0.467 to global tipping points that have been identified are −2 −2 0.526 W m ), 58% (from 0.133 to 0.210 W m ), polar ice sheet collapse, sea level rise, permafrost −2 and 16% (from 0.300 to 0.348 W m ), respectively, thawing, disruption of major weather systems, forest yielding a combined increase (by all GHGs together) die-off, and ocean acidification (WMO, 2022). −2 of 45% (from 2.226 to 3.222 W m ) (Figure 3(a)). The According to this scheme, limiting global temperature Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) – formulated increase to 1.5°C or 2.0°C would necessitate restricting −2 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric the end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m st Administration (NOAA) – was introduced in 2006 (SSP1–1.9 or RCP1.9: ‘Taking-the-green-road-1 ’) or −2 and since then is updated annually. It calculates the 2.6 W m (SSP1–2.6 or RCP2.6: ‘Taking-the-green- nd ratio between total radiative forcing due to these road-2 ’), respectively (Shukla et al., 2019). However, gases in a given year and the total radiative forcing as shown in this essay, current emission rates show in 1990. Between 1992–2021, the AGGI rose by 45% little if any chance of achieving this ambitious goal. In (from 1.028 to 1.488) relative to the 1990 baseline the following section, trends of emissions by the major (https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html: Figure 3(b)). socioeconomic sectors are concisely discussed. The 40 I. STAVI Figure 2. Changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO : a), methane (CH : b), and nitrous oxide (N O: c) between 2 4 2 1992–2021. Data source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1091926/atmospheric-concentration-of-co2-historic/ (a); Data source: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/atmospheric-concentration-of-carbon-dioxide-5#tab-chart_5_filters=%7B% 22rowFilters%22%3A%7B%7D%3B%22columnFilters%22%3A%7B%22pre_config_polutant%22%3A%5B%22CH4%20ppb%22% 5D%7D%7D (b); Data source: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/atmospheric-concentration-of-carbon-dioxide -5#tab-chart_5_filters=%7B%22rowFilters%22%3A%7B%7D%3B%22columnFilters%22%3A%7B%22pre_config_polutant%22% 3A%5B%22N2O%20ppb%22%5D%7D%7D (c) essay’s final section encompasses a call for intergo- from coal, 9.2 Gt from oil, and 4.0 Gt from gas, yielding vernmental administrations, as well as decision makers a total of 21.6 Gt. Peaking in 2019, emissions included at all levels, to urgently implement effective policy- 14.7 Gt from coal, 12.2 Gt from oil, and 7.4 Gt from gas, making in climate change mitigation, while emphasis- and yielded a total of 34.3 Gt (https://ourworldindata. ing that only decisive and proactive climate org/emissions-by-fuel). Despite the 5.1% decrease in governance can negate irreversible climate tipping CO emissions from fossil fuels across this sector in points. 2020, a sharp recovery of global economy in 2021 has led to a 6.0% rise in global emissions, spiking to the highest ever level of 36.3 Gt (IEA, 2022), equating a 68% increase since 1992. Despite the constant 2. Major GHG emitting sectors growth of the renewable energy sub-sector over 2.1. The energy sector time, global electricity demand is currently met by 63.3% fossil fuels, 10.4% nuclear, and only 26.3% Over the last three decades, global GHG emissions renewable sources. Among the fossil fuels, the current from fossil fuel use in the energy sector – including share of GHG sources is 36.7% coal, 23.5% gas, and electricity and heat production, as well as other related 3.1% oil (% of the entire energy sector). Among the processes – have consistently risen, despite a slight renewables, sources are 15.8% hydropower, 5.3% decrease associated with COVID-19 lockdowns, which wind, 2.7% solar, and 2.5% other (% of the entire abruptly slowed economic activities (BP, 2021, https:// energy sector) (https://ourworldindata.org/electricity- ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel). In 1992, global mix). Including all sub-sectors, the energy sector is CO emissions across this sector encompassed 8.4 Gt 2 ALL EARTH 41 Figure 3. Changes in radiative forcing (a), and annual greenhouse gas index (AGGI) relative to the 1990 baseline (b), between 1992–2021. Data source: https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html responsible for 29–35% of global GHGs (https://www. encompassing 7–11% of total anthropogenic CO emis- epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas- sions (https://www.globalefficiencyintel.com/new-blog emissions-data; https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and- /2021/global-steel-industrys-ghg-emissions; https:// maps/daviz/change-of-co2-eq-emissions-2#tab- www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-these-553-steel-plants- dashboard-01). are-responsible-for-9-of-global-co2-emissions/). Another major sub-sector is the mining industry, in which GHGs are emitted throughout excavation, processing, and man- 2.2. The industry sector ufacturing activities (L. Y. Liu et al., 2021). An additional Over the last decades, the global industry sector has been major sub-sector encompasses the chemical and petro- increasingly emitting GHGs. In addition to CO , industrial chemical industries, which are major sources of CO and 2 2 activities are a major source of other GHGs. For example, CH (Rahman et al., 2022; Zhang et al., 2019). Globally, the over the long-run, industrial-derived N O emissions have industry sector accounts for 21–24% of GHGs (https:// particularly increased in North America (Xu et al., 2021) www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas- and South Asia (Bansal et al., 2022). Overall, among the emissions-data; https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by- different industrial sub-sectors, the production of steel sector). (Wang et al., 2021) and other metals (e.g. aluminium) encompasses one of the largest GHG emitters 2.3. The land-use & land-use change (LULUC) and (Haraldsson et al., 2021). Between 1992–2015, global agricultural sector GHG emissions from the steel industry alone rose by~200% (Wang et al., 2021). In 2019, global GHGs from Within this sector, the conversion of natural lands to the steel industry alone yielded approximately 3.6 Gt CO , croplands and grazing lands encompasses a major 2 42 I. STAVI source of GHGs. Often, particularly in the tropics, this (11%), and aviation (8%), as well as railways that includes deforestation and burning of vegetation encompass a smaller source (3%) (https://www.sta cover, an enormous source of CO emissions (FAO, tista.com/statistics/1185535/transport-carbon-dioxide- 2020). Further, land-use changes lead to the decom- emissions-breakdown/). Within the road transport sub- position of large amounts of safely-stored soil organic sector, the growing share of hybrid, hybrid-plug-in, carbon, which oxidises and turns into atmospheric CO and electric cars (https://www.bts.gov/content/gaso (Bennetzen et al., 2016b). Prescribed fires, a regular line-hybrid-and-electric-vehicle-sales) has not suc- management practice in extensive grasslands and ceeded in decelerating GHG emissions over time. This savannahs, also emit considerable amounts of CO is presumably related to the total increasing number of (FAO, 2020). In croplands, another major source of road vehicles, specifically passenger cars, over the last GHGs is attributed to nitrogen fertilisers, which emit decades (Dargay et al., 2007; Lian et al., 2018). huge amounts of N O. Agricultural CH is mostly attrib- Including all sub-sectors, transportation is the source 2 4 uted to livestock systems, and specifically to ruminant of 14–16% of global GHGs (https://www.epa.gov/ghge animals, as well as to paddy cropping systems, and missions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data; particularly to rice cultivation (Bennetzen et al., https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector). 2016a; Islam et al., 2020). Despite a decreasing trend in global GHG emissions from some of these sub- 2.5. The building/construction sector sectors during the last decades, other sub-sectors have faced an increasing trend. For example, between Emissions from this sector are distributed among the 2000–2018, along with declining deforestation rates, sub-sectors of construction and related industries (43%), land-use change-imposed emissions decreased by residential (direct and indirect: 20%), non-residential 22% – from 5.0 to 3.9 Gt CO e. Simultaneously, emis- (direct and indirect: 17%), and other (20%). Until 2018, sions from crop and livestock systems increased by global emissions by this sector continuously increased. 15% – from 4.6 to 5.3 Gt CO e – with livestock systems The COVID-19 economic slowdown led to a two-year contributing two thirds of this measure. Combining decrease, which has since returned to an increasing these divergent trends results in a 3.0% net decrease trend. Yet, over time, improved efficiency across all sub- in GHG emissions across the entire LULUC/agricultural sectors, alongside the introduction of advanced build- sector over this period (FAO, 2020). This trend consists ing methodologies and the expansion of innovative with other studies, which showed a net decrease in construction materials, have somewhat mitigated the global GHG emissions across this sector since the early rising emissions (UNEP, 2021). Among the construction 1990s, and attributed this trend to improved efficiency materials, cement is the dominant GHG emitter, fol- in agricultural production systems (Gaihre et al., 2015; lowed by steel, aluminium, glass, wood, and copper Bennetzen et al., 2016a; 2016b). Overall, emissions (Zhong et al., 2021). The production of cement is highly from this sector encompass 17–24% of global GHGs carbon-intensive, as enormous amounts of fossil fuels (FAO, 2020; https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/glo are needed to heat a mixture of limestone and clay to bal-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data; https://ourworl over 1,400 °C. The following chemical reactions dindata.org/emissions-by-sector). between the two substances release an additional 600 kg CO for each tonne of cement produced (Nature Editors, 2021). Emission of GHGs have tripled in the 2.4. The transportation sector last three decades and doubled in the last two decades. Emitted GHGs from fossil fuel combustion in transpor- Global emissions from this industry encompassed 915, tation are comprised of~95% CO , and small amounts 1,305, 2,339, and 2,897 Mt CO in 1992, 2001, 2011, and 2 2 2021, respectively (https://apnews.com/article/climate- of N O, CH , and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) (https:// 2 4 science-china-pollution-3d97642acbb07f www.transportation.gov/sustainability/climate/trans portation-ghg-emissions-and-trends). In 1992, global ca7540edca38448266). In total, this sector accounts for 6–11% of global GHGs (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemis GHG emissions from transportation amounted to 4.87 sions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data; https:// Gt CO e. In 2019, emissions from this sector rose to 8.43 Gt CO e, representing a 73% increase over almost ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector). three decades (https://www.statista.com/statistics/ 1084096/ghg-emissions-transportation-sector-globally 2.6. The waste treatment/disposal sector /). In 2020, due to the COVID-19 lockdown, emissions from this sector dropped by 15%, to 7.20 Gt CO Wastes from several sources, including food and other e (https://www.iea.org/topics/transport). Despite biogenic materials, municipal solids, industrial solids, some rebound in 2021, the sector has still faced a 3% sewage sludge, and more (Crippa et al., 2021), emit decrease compared to the 2019 level (https://www.iea. considerable amounts of GHGs. Within this sector, org/topics/transport). Within this sector, the major landfills and wastewater are the main source of GHG emission sources are road transport (78%), shipping emissions, specifically CH . In landfills, CH 4 4 ALL EARTH 43 encompasses~50% of all GHG emissions. In sewage fresh water into the ocean, and decelerate the Atlantic sludge facilities, the CH share of total GHGs varies Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The latter, greatly, depending on the properties of the processed partly driven by dense, salty water descending towards material, processing procedures, moisture content, the ocean floor, becomes weaker, decreasing heat trans- and ambient temperature, which determine the pre- port from the tropics to the North Pole. In turn, this warms vailing aerobic vs. anaerobic conditions and the effi - the seawater in the Southern Ocean, increasing ice sheet ciency of methanogenesis (IPCC, 2006a). Overall, waste melting in Antarctica, causing sea level to rise, and accel- treatment/disposal accounts for 20–30% of global erating the melting of additional ice sheets. The wea- anthropogenic CH emissions (Crippa et al., 2021; kened Gulf Stream – which encompasses an important https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/a-clarion-call-to- part in the AMOC and has substantially warmed over the reduce-and-phase-out-of-open-waste-burning/). In last decades – has become less effective in regulating the addition to CH , solid wastes also emit smaller mild climatic conditions over Western Europe, disrupting amounts of CO and N O (IPCC, 2006a). Yet, when precipitation patterns across the region. Further, the inter- 2 2 solid wastes are intentionally (or spontaneously) rupted Atlantic currents adversely affect climatic condi- burnt in open dumps or residential sites – a common tions across the Amazon, where reduced precipitations practice in many developing countries (Gautam & have led to desiccation and mass mortality of trees Agrawal, 2021) – CO emissions, and to some extent (Wunderling et al., 2021). The dead trees halt to assimilate N O emissions, become much greater (IPCC, 2006b). carbon, and moreover, become available to fuel high- Further, this mismanagement practice accounts for severity forest wildfires (both in the Amazon Basin and 11% of global emissions of the short-lived GHG black elsewhere), releasing enormous amounts of CO into the carbon (https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/a-clarion- atmosphere, thus generating a climate positive feedback call-to-reduce-and-phase-out-of-open-waste-burning loop (Choat et al., 2018). The simultaneous thawing of /). Overall, emissions from this sector are responsible extensive carbon-rich permafrost systems, induced by for 5–12% of global GHGs (Gautam & Agrawal, 2021; global warming, emits huge amounts of CO and CH , 2 4 https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/a-clarion-call-to- generating an additional climate positive feedback loop reduce-and-phase-out-of-open-waste-burning/). (Natali et al., 2021). Therefore, in terms of climate change tipping points, time is running out. In 2021, global emissions of 3. Time to act CO alone led to an 8.7% reduction in the remaining credit for limiting global warming to 1.5°C. If current On the bright side, GHG reductions in the LULUC/agricul- emission rates continue, the entire credit may be fully ture sector over the last decades (Bennetzen et al., 2016a), exploited within approximately one decade (Z. Liu and the projected continued decreasing emissions in the et al., 2022). Despite some uncertainties in terms of coming decades (Bennetzen et al., 2016b) are encoura- climatic processes and feedbacks, as well as in the ging. Such sectorial trends are rather remarkable, espe- relative share of emissions by each socioeconomic cially due to the global increase of 47% in human sector, there is no doubt that the next few years are population over the last three decades – from 5.3 billion critical. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2.0°C by in 1990 to 7.8 billion in 2020 (https://ourworldindata.org/ 2100 will require total GHG to peak before 2025 at the world-population-growth), and the projected increase to latest, and be reduced by 43% or 25%, respectively, in 9.8 billion in 2050 (https://www.un.org/en/desa/world- 2030 relative to 2019, followed by zero net emissions in population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112- the early 2050s or 2070s, respectively (IPCC, 2022). billion-2100). At the same time, incessantly increasing However, according to a recent study, the current emissions in sub-sectors such as electricity production, global warming of~1.1°C compared to preindustrial heat generation, metal manufacturing, chemical produc- times already lies within the lower end of five climate tion, road and aviation transport, and cement production, tipping points’ uncertainty ranges. Also, according to and moreover in entire sectors such as energy, industry, the very same study, global warming ranging between transportation, waste treatment/disposal, and building/ 1.5–2.0°C would likely trigger several tipping points, construction, demonstrate the dark side (Minx et al., such as ice sheet collapse in Greenland and west 2021). Specifically, under the SSP1–2.6/RCP2.6 scenario, Antarctica, extensive permafrost thawing in northern global GHGs by building and construction materials alone latitudes, and die-off of low-latitudinal coral reefs, are forecasted to increase from 3.5 GT CO e in 2020 to 4.6 stressing the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C CO e in 2060 (Zhong et al., 2021). (McKay et al., 2022). Climate tipping points occur when global warming One way or another, in order to successfully miti- pushes temperatures beyond a critical threshold, gener- gate climate change, conclusive intergovernmental ating accelerated and irreversible impacts, with complex policies, coupled with effective decision making at all chains of interactions among the cryosphere, ocean/ levels, should call for immediate, substantial and bind- atmosphere, and biosphere (McKay et al., 2022). For ing emission reductions across all socioeconomic example, the melting ice sheets in Greenland release 44 I. 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Journal
All Earth
– Taylor & Francis
Published: Dec 31, 2023
Keywords: Climate change mitigation and adaptation; climatic positive feedbacks; Conference of Parties (COP); Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 1.9/RCP2.6; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
